Early 2024 NBA MVP Odds & Predictions

25 Jun 24
NBA
News - NBA
Early 2024 NBA MVP Odds & Predictions

The Boston Celtics have been crowned 2024 NBA champions. Salute. Now, it’s on to next season, because there’s no time like the present to start thinking about value picks in the major futures betting markets. The usual suspects top the NBA MVPs early odds table at most sports betting sites, but there are a couple of other guys to consider.

Highlights

  • Voter fatigue will keep Nikola Jokic from winning MVP for the fourth time in five years
  • Luka Doncic is primed to finally get his recognition
  • There are several interesting long shots to consider as well
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All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

2025 NBA MVP Betting Odds

Player (Team)Odds
Nikola Jokic (DEN)+400
Luka Doncic (DAL)+400
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)+650
Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)+650
Joel Embiid (PHI)+700
Anthony Edwards (MIN)+1,200
Jayson Tatum (BOS)+1,400
Victor Wembanyama (SA)+2,000
Jalen Brunson (NYK)+2,200
Stephen Curry (GS)+4,000

Nikola Jokic - DEN (+400)

Only five players have ever won four NBA MVPs: Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, and Wilt Chamberlain. As any of those other guys will tell him, when it comes to filling his trophy case, one of Nikola Jokic’s greatest obstacles from now on will be voter fatigue.

It’s simply human nature, no one wants to keep handing out the same award to the same guy year in and year out. That’s why dominant teams and players develop such lusty followings of anti-supporters. There were many instances where guys like Jordan and James could have or should have easily won another MVP, but the voters chose to give it to someone new instead.

Jokic has already experienced this during his short prime, as he probably should be coming into the 2024-2025 season with four straight MVPs under his belt. The success of the Joker’s teams has helped push him to the award in the past, but with the young guns coming up for other Western Conference teams right now, he likely won’t be able to rely on that boost next season.

The Big Cevapi is likely going to have another ho-hum MVP-caliber season, but if he wants to win his fourth in five years, he’ll have to not only boost his raw individual numbers significantly, he’ll have to make sure his team remains a top two or three seed in the brutal West. For +400 odds in June, that scenario is just too risky.

Luka Doncic - DAL (+400)

While Jokic’s Slavic best buddy, Luka Doncic, is getting the same uninspiring +400 odds from Ontario sportsbooks, he’s got a much rosier road to the 2025 NBA MVP award. Unlike Jokic, Doncic doesn’t have to deal with voter fatigue at all. In fact, he could be getting a boost from an opposing phenomenon: some voters might think he’s owed one.

Not to make anyone feel old, but Doncic has been in the league six years now, the last five as an All-NBA 1st-Teamer. He’s also been top eight in MVP voting in each of those five years without winning once, which must be some sort of record.

For the last two years, he’s also averaged 32+ points per game, and while his team missed the playoffs in 2023, essentially negating him from consideration (though he still finished eighth in the voting), his team won 50 games last year, and he still came third. That, despite the fact that he averaged 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, and 9.2 rebounds per game on a surprisingly efficient shooting line of 49-38-79.

The Mavericks were arguably the best regular season team following their midseason acquisitions of P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, and with the potential for a full offseason for those guys to really get acclimated, Dallas could make a real charge for the No. 1 seed in 2025.

If Doncic keeps up those numbers and leads his team to a number one seed, they have no choice but to give it to him. Of all the front-runners, Doncic is the best bet right now, though there are a couple of long shots that are definitely worth some consideration.

Best of the Rest

Jokic and Doncic are the usual suspects, but who else could make a case for themselves further down the odds board?

  • Probably the best value on the board is Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards. The guy turned into a bonafide superstar last year, and the team around him has every reason to believe they can be the No. 1 seed. Edwards’ two-way brilliance also makes him pretty unique in this MVP conversation. At +1,200, we’re seeing dollar signs like Scrooge McDuck.
  • Though he’s not on our board above since he’s not in the top 10, Ja Morant is another player who’s worth a look as a very long shot. He’s dealt with a lot over the last year, both off the court and with injuries, but we’ve seen what he can do, and that team they’ve built around him in Memphis is no joke when it’s healthy. Don’t forget, his Grizzlies were the No. 2 seed in the West in both 2022 and 2023. At +5,000 odds, he’s probably the only one outside the top 10 with a legitimate chance to win this award. 
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Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.