UFC 317: Main Card Predictions, Best Bets, & Betting Odds - June 28
All odds provided by Betway.
( C ) Alexandre Pantoja vs. No. 4 Kai Kara-France Flyweight Championship Bout Betting Odds
In the co-main event, Alexander “The Cannibal” Pantoja (29-5) makes the fourth defense of his flyweight strap against Kai “Don’t Blink” Kara-France (25-11, 1 NC), who is no stranger to title fights either, having fought Brandon Moreno for the belt a few years ago. The Cannibal and Don’t Blink are pretty evenly matched physically. Pantoja is 35, Kara-France is 32. The Brazilian is 5’5”, the Kiwi is 5’4”. The champ has a 68-inch reach, the challenger, 69.
The top end of this division is so tight, and we’re already talking about the 125-pound division, so we expect this one to go the distance despite the odds we’re seeing from UFC betting sites. Three of Pantoja’s last four have gone to the cards, same with 2 of Steve Erceg’s last three, Brandon Royval’s last three straight, Brandon Moreno’s last four straight, and two of Kara-France’s last four.
Pantoja has never been finished, and he’s been fighting the top dogs to decisions lately, with wins on the cards against Moreno, Erceg, and Royval. Kara-France is pretty good at stuffing takedowns, but we think Pantoja is going to disguise his shots well enough to get the Kiwi down and win a round or two like that. We’re taking the champ by decision here.
Best Bet: Alexandre Pantoja to Win via Decision (+187)
No. 1 Brandon Royval vs. No. 12 Joshua Van Flyweight Bout Betting Odds
Brandon “Raw Dawg” Royval (17-7) just had his chance at the title back in 2023, but lost to Pantoja by unanimous decision. He will surely get another title shot if he gets his third straight win here against up-and-comer Joshua “The Fearless” Van (14-2). Van, at 23, is the younger fighter by nine years. However, Royval has four-inch height (5’9” to 5’5”) and three-inch reach (68 inches to 65) advantages.
Van just fought three weeks ago as well, beating Bruno Gustavo da Silva via TKO. Meanwhile, Royval has won his last two fights, both by very tight split decision. Van is a very exciting and aggressive fighter, but at just 23 years old, we don’t think he’s ready for this level of opponent. Royval is right in the midst of the best years of his fighting career, and he has fought the best this division has to offer, so we’ll take the experience over the flash here.
Best Bet: Brandon Royval Moneyline (+100)
No. 9 Beneil Dariush vs. No. 11 Renato Moicano Lightweight Bout Betting Odds
Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) was on a roll before back-to-back KO/TKO losses in 2023 set him back significantly. He will look to return to the win column against Renato “Money” Moicano (20-6-1). The pair could not be more evenly matched if we went strictly by the tale of the tape: both fighters are 36 years old, both have a 72-inch reach, and there is only a one-inch height advantage for Moicano at 5’11”.
With Dariush enters the octagon after an 18-month layoff and Moicano having a clear advantage in the stand-up, we like the Brazilian to win this one. Moicano may be 36 and coming off a first-round loss to Islam Makhachev on short notice, but he battered Benoit Saint-Denis and Jalin Turner last year. All three of those fights happened more recently than Dariush’s last one.
Best Bet: Renato Moicano Moneyline (-125)/Betway
