UFC Vegas 117: Allen vs. Costa Main Event Betting Predictions & Odds

After a massive UFC 328 in New Jersey last week that saw as surprising a result as you can imagine in the headlining event, the UFC takes a bit of a breather here this weekend with a much more lowkey Fight Night event back at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Across seven fights on the preliminary card and six on the main card, there really isn’t much to write home about. It’s not the measure of a fighter, but half of the 12 mixed martial artists on the main card aren’t even big enough to warrant their own Wikipedia page yet.

However, unlike the rest of the card, the main event will be pitting a pair of ranked fighters against each other. No. 7 featherweight Arnold Allen is set to battle No. 12 Melquizael Costa in a matchup of fighters on very different trajectories in their respective careers right now. Read on for our full breakdown of the main event scrap as well as our prediction and the top UFC betting odds in Canada!

UFC Vegas 117: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa Featherweight Main Event Picks & Odds - May 16

All odds provided by Betway.

Tale of the Tape:

Category	Arnold Allen	Melquizael Costa
Height	5’9” (1.75 m)	5’10” (1.78 m)
Weight	145 lbs (66 kg)	145 lbs (66 kg)
Reach	70” (178 cm)	71” (180 cm)
Age	32	29
Nickname	Almighty	The Dalmatian
Fighting Stance	Orthodox	Southpaw
Significant Strikes Landed/Minute	3.47	4.38
Strikes Absorbed/Minute	3.04	2.97
Takedown Average	0.86	2.00
Takedown Defense	72 %	59 %
Current Ranking	No. 7	No. 12
Fighting Out Of	Trimley St. Martin, Suffolk, England	Bauru, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Fight Analysis & Prediction

No. 7 Arnold Allen vs. No. 12 Melquizael Costa Ranked Featherweight Bout Betting Odds

Fighter	Moneyline	Spread	Rounds	Win by Decision	Win by KO/TKO/DQ	Win by Submission	Go the Distance
Arnold Allen	-120	-5.5 (+155)	O4.5 (-155)	+185	+375	+1,800	-145
Melquizael Costa	+100	+5.5 (-200)	U4.5 (+122)	+265	+550	+575	+115

The UFC loves to pit guys against each other that are on very different paths at the time. In this main card, we get featherweight mainstay Arnold Allen (20-4), who has lost a bit of steam after losing three of his last four fights, and relative newcomer Melquizael Costa (26-7), who has won six straight fights after losing two of his three upon joining the UFC in 2023.

Costa has won his last two via finish as well, with his most recent win over UFC veteran Dan Ige stamping him as a force to be reckoned with at 145 pounds. Meanwhile, Allen has had a reality check recently. He started his career 19-1 and headed into a massive battle with Max Holloway on the back of two straight wins by finish against solid opponents in Dan Hooker and Calvin Kattar.

However, Holloway absolutely battered Allen in a unanimous decision win, which likely impacted Allen’s overall confidence. Since then, he’s lost two more decisions to Jean Silva and Movsar Evloev while taking one against Giga Chikadze.

Allen seems to be fading despite being only 32, and Costa is certainly on the come up after that impressive finish of Ige. He’s a busier striker with better accuracy and defense than Allen, and he’s also much more versatile, mixing in kicks well. Costa is also a much better grappler and wrestler than Allen, though we don’t expect either fighter to try to get it to the ground.

Allen has never been finished, so getting some extra value on Costa with his +265 odds to win via decision could be a choice. However, we’re going to play it safe with his moneyline, which is already offering great value at +100.

Best Bet: Melquizael Costa Moneyline (+100)