Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: NFL Predictions, Odds, & Picks | Week 5

Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET · AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX · Prime Video

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Dallas enters as a huge home favourite, a gap that only widens with Tampa Bay starting an undrafted rookie for a second straight week. These NFL picks for this week rarely get easier than a solid home team against a winless side on three days' rest.

Dallas Cowboys -8.5: -111

I'm backing Dallas -8.5 here. They are averaging 30.5 points per game, second in the league, while Tampa Bay sits 23rd at 19.0 ppg behind Jalon Daniels, who passed for only 148 yards with two interceptions in his first career start. Dallas's defence has its own issues, allowing 28 ppg, but Tampa Bay has turned it over nine times for a minus-5 differential, and a short week on the road is brutal for a team breaking in a rookie. The number is large, but so is the gap here.

Javonte Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +300

Javonte Williams has found the end zone five times on just 62 carries through four games, hard to ignore with Dallas a heavy favourite likely to lean on the run late. A big lead may add to his goal-line work, and I like the value at +300 for a RB, who has been great near the end zone.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Dallas side

Dak Prescott ranks third in the league in QBR and has passed for 1,032 yards and 8 touchdowns against one interception, and CeeDee Lamb leads America’s Team team with 37 catches for 498 yards. Dallas has the offence but the defence only ranks 28th in the league giving up an average of 29 ppg. Still facing a backup and rookie QB and a Bucs; team that has not cracked 20 points in the last three games the matchup still tilts toward Dallas covering a number this large.

The Tampa Bay side

Baker Mayfield remains out with a dislocated right thumb, and head coach Todd Bowles has confirmed rookie Jalon Daniels starts again: “Yeah, he'll be the quarterback Thursday night.” Daniels struggled in his debut, and Tampa Bay's offence has converted just 34.5 percent of third downs while averaging. The Buccaneers have given it away nine times for a minus-5 differential, and now travel to Dallas on a short week with an inexperienced quarterback, exactly the spot Dallas can exploit.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Cowboys Spread -8.5	Cowboys Moneyline
-111	-475
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Dallas Cowboys: 2026 Season So Far

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2026 Season So Far

I predict Dallas wins comfortably, 31-13. Prescott and Lamb have been too productive to slow down, and Daniels, who threw two interceptions in his only start, is not equipped to keep pace on a short week. Williams punches in at least one short touchdown given his five scores in four games, and even Dallas's leaky defence should be enough to contain an offence averaging 19 ppg. My call is Dallas covers the spread comfortably.