Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 5

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL · FOX

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Miami's offence has scored 13 points or fewer in all four games this season, the worst output in the league, and Malik Willis is still searching for his first multi-touchdown start under centre. Cincinnati has lost two in a row  arrives off back-to-back losses of its own, but Joe Burrow is averaging close to 293 passing yards a game, a gap that shapes most of this week's NFL prediction odds. The Bengals are road favourites by nearly a touchdown, which is not surprising for a winless Dolphins team. and Sunday's game at Hard Rock Stadium looks as lopsided as anything on this week's board.

Under 42.5 Total Points: -111

I'm backing the under here. Miami hasn't scored more than 13 points in a game this season, averaging 11.5 a game, dead last in the NFL, and Cincinnati's offence has cooled off during back-to-back losses to Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. The Bengals defence has allowed 21.3 ppgoints a game, but that number has a long way to go before this game threatens 43 combined points against a lackluster Dolphons' offence. My call is the under independent of who wins, since Miami's scoring floor is the real story here.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Miami side

Malik Willis has started all four games since Miami moved on from Tua Tagovailoa over the off-season, completing 56.3 percent of his throws for 712 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. He has been sacked 11 times behind a line conceding a 9.65 percent sack rate, among the league's worst. On top of that, Miami lost its top offensive weapon when De'Von Achane tore his ACL in Week 3 and landed on season-ending injured reserve. Miami not only ranks 32nd in scoring at 11.5 ppg, but also only and 21st in points allowed at 25.3, which is why it is no surprise Cincy is favoured by nearly a touchdown. 

The Cincinnati side

Joe Burrow has thrown for 1,171 yards and seven touchdowns against three interceptions, by far the best quarterback play either sideline brings into Sunday. Cincinnati has still lost two straight, a 30-27 shootout defeat to Pittsburgh and a 22-17 loss to Jacksonville. Wednesday's injury report listed Ja'Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (groin/neck) as non-participants, with Friday's final designation still to come. Even with some uncertainty around his top two receivers, a Miami defence allowing 25.3 points a game gives Burrow enough cushion against a Miami offence scoring less than half that. The oddsmakers agree, making Cincinnati a 6.5-point touchdown favourite on the road.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Bengals Spread -6.5	Bengals Moneyline -323
-111	-110
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
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Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Bengals moneyline odds of -323 on Bet365 imply a de-vigged win probability of about 73% for Cincinnati against 27% percent for Miami. My own number sits a touch higher for Cincinnati, closer to 76%, since the gap between these two offences is very wide. 

I'm backing Cincinnati to win comfortably without needing a big offensive outburst. Burrow should move the ball consistently against a Miami defence that ranks 21st in points allowed, while the Dolphins and their last ranked offence will struggle to move the ball. Factor in Achane's season-ending injury and a reeling Miami team, the final score lands at Cincinnati 24, Miami 13, a result that covers the spread for Cincy and stays under the total.