New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 5

Sunday, October 11, 2026 · 1:00 PM ET · Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA · FOX

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Minnesota's defence has been the best story of the season through four weeks, the reason behind a 4-0 start. New Orleans has the opposite problem on defence giving up a league worst 32 ppg. The D has undercut a Saints offence good enough to keep this team competitive most weeks. That contrast, the league's stingiest defence against the worst, which is why it is no surprise the visiting Vikings are the favourite.

Minnesota Vikings -2.5: -106

I'm backing Minnesota -2.5 here. The Vikings have won on defence and situational football all season. Kyler Murray only needs to be efficient behind an offence that ranks 18th in scoring. New Orleans is dealing with real questions on defence  despite an offense that ranks legit tied for 10th in scoring. The Saints have given up at least 31 points in each of their three losses and it is a little surprising the spread does not favour the Vikings more.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Minnesota side

Minnesota is 4-0 through four weeks, with wins over Green Bay, Chicago, Tampa Bay and Miami without ever trailing by more than a score. Kyler Murray has done enough to keep this offence 18th in scoring at 21.5 points a game, leaning on a defence that has held every opponent under 23 points. Justin Jefferson is trending the right way after sitting out last week, logging a limited practice Thursday, and Christian Darrisaw did not practice at all, worth watching against a Saints front that can still get after the passer. 

The New Orleans side

New Orleans has lost three of four, a 24-45 loss to Atlanta the low point so far, which was in the last game. Tyler Shough logged a limited practice Thursday and has kept this offence productive, 26.3 points a game, but Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave both sat out that session, with Kaden Elliss not practicing after missing last week's game entirely. Olave has been cleared to play but Kamara is still listed as questionable. Shough has had to carry the offense, as the Saints only rank 26th in rushing yards per game, their top RB is out on IR, and Kamara is a question mark for Sunday. Those reasons and Minnesota’s defense is why I am backing the Vikings.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Vikings Spread	Vikings Moneyline
-2.5	-133
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
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Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Vikings moneyline odds of -133 on Bet365 imply a de-vigged win probability of 55% for Minnesota against 45 percent for New Orleans. My own number sits closer to 60%, because a gap this wide between the league's best and worst scoring defences rarely factors into a 2.5-point spread. The market looks like it is pricing Minnesota's modest offence as a drag on the number, and that undersells how much a defence like this plays out. 

I'm backing a 24-17 Minnesota win. Justin Jefferson trending back toward health gives Kyler Murray a reliable WR even on a day Minnesota doesn't need to score much, and the 9-3 win over Chicago in Week 2 shows this group can win ugly. New Orleans will move the ball behind Tyler Shough, but will struggle to score and the Vikings will not light it up, as they have not done so in the last three games. The final score is Minnesota 24, New Orleans 17, a combined 41 points that lands just under the total and clears the spread comfortably for Minnesota.