NFL Week 6: Player Prop Best Bets and Betting Odds
All betting odds provided by Betway.
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens - Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-170) @ Cleveland Browns
Derrick Henry is tied with Josh Allen for second in the NFL in touchdowns with eight, just behind Jahmyr Gibbs, who has nine. Henry has reached pay dirt in each of Baltimore’s five games this season. With numbers like that, you’d think his anytime touchdown scorer odds would be much more chalky.
Perhaps oddsmakers are really reading into the fact that Henry's Week 6 opponent, the Browns, have allowed just one rushing TD this year, fewest in football. That’s not really indicative of anything but happenstance in our opinion though.
They have given up 10 passing touchdowns this year, so they’re not some elite scoring defence. They are pretty good in the red zone, but the hulking Henry is generally salve for that. He’s tied for the most rushing attempts from inside the five, with 11, and he gests the ball in there 85 percent of the time his team runs it.
He’s also scored in three of four matchups with the Browns since he joined the division-rival Ravens. And those came against those elite Myles Garrett-led units, not this mediocre one. We’re taking this prop all season as long as it stays under -200.
Cam Skattebo, RB, New York Giants - Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-110) vs. New Orleans Saints
We just really love betting against the Saints run defence. It is an affront to NFL football. They’re allowing over 133 rush yards per game to running backs, over 10 percent more than the next worst team.
They’ve only played five games, but they’ve already allowed seven different running backs to go for 50+ yards this season, allowing two each against the Raiders and Falcons. Cam Skattebo has gone way over this number in four of five games, which is why this line might seem kind of funky.
That’s because head coach John Harbaugh somewhat hinted at reducing Skattebo’s workload after four costly fumbles through the first five games. But we think that has been factored into this line, which is why we’re okay taking it. If not for those Harbaugh comments, the line would likely be closer to 60 against this awful defence.
Not to mention that his backup, Najee Harris, also fumbled last week and got benched for most of the fourth quarter while Skattebo stayed in. Even if he does get a couple fewer snaps, Skattebo should have no problem finding room against a really poor New Orleans run defence.
Kirk Cousins, QB, Las Vegas Raiders - Over 249.5 Passing Yards (-110) vs. Buffalo Bills
Kirko Chainz isn’t ready to give up his job yet. He has played well through the first five weeks, leading the Raiders to a 3-2 start. But they got beat up last week, which saw No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza come in for some mop up duty. Obviously that led to questions about Cousins’ grasp on the starting job. Head coach Klint Kubiak quelled any fears this week though, confirming Cousins is still the guy.
And now he gets to go back home to play against the second-worst pass defence in the NFL in the Buffalo Bills. They are allowing a hair over 280 passing yards a game, which is way up on Cousins’ line here. The only team that didn’t throw for 250 yards against Buffalo this season was the hapless Chargers.
Cousins has thrown for 240+ yards in four straight games and has also hit the over on this prop in each of those. All five QBs to play Buffalo this year hit the over on their passing yards prop, with most going way over their number. Kirk Cousins will join their ranks in Week 6.
