World Cup 2026: Scotland vs Brazil Odds, Best Bets & Prediction

Betway odds, current at time of writing and subject to change without notice.

In their final Group C game, Scotland face a tall order against Brazil in Miami. With three points, Steve Clarke's side are well placed to reach the knockout stage for the first time in a generation. Across our soccer predictions for the tournament, few scenarios are as compelling as a Scottish upset of the Selecao.

Brazil, top on goal difference, can settle for a draw to secure first place. More importantly, the Selecao must cope with an injury list that has grown alarmingly in recent days.

The Scottish side

Scotland have built their run on defensive discipline. Their 1-0 win over Haiti, a first World Cup victory since 1990, was followed by a frustrating 0-1 loss to Morocco, conceded after just 72 seconds. Scott McTominay, denied two penalties in that game, remains the key man in midfield.

The loss of Billy Gilmour, out for the rest of the tournament, robs the midfield of real quality. Andrew Robertson and John McGinn will need to bolster a block set to sit deep. A point would all but secure qualification as a best third-placed team, which encourages caution and points our read towards a tight game.

Team news: Billy Gilmour is out for the rest of the tournament through injury. Scott McTominay remains the key midfielder after being denied two penalties against Morocco.

Probable lineup Scotland (4-1-4-1): Gunn; Patterson, Hendry, Hanley, Robertson; McTominay; Christie, Ferguson, McGinn, Tierney; Adams.

The Brazilian side

Brazil started slowly, held to a 1-1 draw by Morocco, before steadying themselves with a 3-0 win over Haiti built on a Matheus Cunha double. Vinicius Junior remains Carlo Ancelotti's number one attacking weapon. The Selecao's individual quality is still far above anything Scotland can field.

But the Brazilian attack is depleted: Raphinha is out after an injury against Haiti, while Rodrygo and Estevao were already missing. Ancelotti himself has said he may rotate, a key point given Brazil only need a draw. That likely drop in intensity bears directly on the expected goal total.

Team news: Raphinha is out for this match after picking up an injury against Haiti, while Rodrygo and Estevao were already absent. Neymar has recovered and could feature off the bench.

Probable lineup Brazil (4-3-3): Alisson; Vanderson, Danilo, Gabriel Magalhaes, Douglas Santos; Bruno Guimaraes, Casemiro, Paqueta; Martinelli, Matheus Cunha, Vinicius Junior.

Betway and 888sport odds, correct at the time of writing

We see Brazil winning, but without flair and without a flood of goals. A controlled 1-0, in which the Selecao manage their lead and Scotland defend deep, looks like the most credible scenario.

The market puts Brazil at roughly 75.2% to win (odds of 1.33). Our estimate of 69% is close, but we give a little more credit than usual to the draw at 19%, given Brazil's depleted attack and limited stakes for the Selecao.

In our view, the market underestimates the impact of those attacking absences and the expected rotation, pricing this as a Brazilian goal fest. The implied probability of Under 2.5 goals at 2.00 is 50%, while our estimate sits between 55% and 60%. On our sportsbook comparison platform, Brazil remain the logical favourite, but the value lies on the goal total.

Under 2.5 Goals: at odds of 1.95

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals. The Brazilian attack, stripped of Raphinha, Rodrygo and Estevao, loses its cutting edge, and Ancelotti is likely to rest key men with qualification well in hand. Scotland, for their part, have no reason to open up and will defend with discipline.

Across their four World Cup meetings, in 1974, 1982, 1990 and 1998, all in the group stage, Brazil have won three and drawn one (a 0-0 in 1974), with several of those games staying under three goals. At 2.00, Under 2.5 goals offers a full price for a scenario we believe the market badly underrates.