World Cup 2026: Turkey vs USA Odds, Best Bets & Prediction

Betway odds, current at time of writing and subject to change without notice

Turkey close out their World Cup against the United States on the final Group D matchday in Inglewood. Within the final round of Group D, few games carry so little at stake: the Turks are already out and the Americans have wrapped up top spot.

As co-hosts assured of finishing first, the United States are expected to rotate heavily. Turkey, without a single goal in the competition, are now playing only for pride.

The Turkish side

Turkey are enduring a nightmare tournament, beaten 0-2 by Australia and then 0-1 by Paraguay without scoring once across both games. Despite the talent of Hakan Calhanoglu and young Arda Guler, Vincenzo Montella's side have been desperately short of a cutting edge. Their early exit inevitably saps motivation.

Free of any pressure, Turkey may play with more freedom, but their inability to convert remains a real concern. Kenan Yildiz will look to bring some thrust out wide. That attacking sterility is a key element of how we read this match.

Team news: Turkey have no fresh injury issues but carry the weight of elimination. Hakan Calhanoglu and Arda Guler remain the creative reference points.

Probable lineup Turkey (4-2-3-1): Cakir; Muldur, Demiral, Bardakci, Kadioglu; Calhanoglu, Yuksek, Akgun, Guler, Yildiz; Akturkoglu.

The American side

Imperious so far, the United States have posted two emphatic wins, 4-1 over Paraguay and 2-0 over Australia, to seize top spot in Group D. Mauricio Pochettino's side lean on Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun, already decisive. First and qualified, they approach this game with zero pressure.

The context still calls for caution: several regulars are a booking away from suspension and Pulisic, carrying a knock, remains a doubt. Pochettino should rest his starters ahead of the round of 16. Even rotated, the American side hold a level above a demotivated Turkey. On paper this remains a comfortable assignment, and only a sloppy, heavily changed display would let Turkey escape with a draw.

Team news: Christian Pulisic is a doubt with a minor knock, and several starters are one booking from suspension. Pochettino is expected to rotate ahead of the knockout stage.

Probable lineup USA (4-3-3): Freese; Freeman, Richards, Ream, Scally; Reyna, Adams, Tillman, Trusty; Wright, Berhalter.

Betway and 888sport odds, correct at the time of writing

We see the United States winning, even at half-throttle. The two nations have met five times without ever crossing paths at a World Cup, a record too thin to matter in a game with such an unusual context.

The market puts the United States at roughly 54% to win (odds of 1.83). Our estimate of 49% accounts for likely American rotation but still strongly favours them against a Turkey side with no attacking solution.

In our view, the market overrates Turkish pride and underrates just how toothless this attack has been, blank across one hundred and eighty minutes of football. The low stakes and rotation also make Under 2.5 goals credible, priced around 2.05 on the market. On our Canadian sportsbook comparison, the lines on this game vary noticeably from one operator to the next.

USA Win: at odds of 1.85

Our main bet is a United States win. Even with a rotated side, their superiority is clear against an eliminated Turkey that has not scored a single goal in this tournament. Pochettino's men arrive on the back of two convincing victories.

At 1.85, the favourite offers a full price for a game it should not lose, despite the absence of stakes. As a complementary angle, American rotation and Turkish sterility make Under 2.5 goals appealing at around 2.05 on the market, but our firm pick remains the American win.