Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
2026 World Cup Golden Boot Odds - Outright Winner
Leading the pack at soccer betting sportsbooks for the tournament is Kylian Mbappe at +550, who was awarded the Golden Boot in the 2022 edition in Qatar. Kane isn’t far behind him at +700 odds, while Lionel Messi, who scored seven times four years ago en route to the title, has +1200 odds.
Kylian Mbappe (+550)
Mbappe has been the focal point up top for France over the last two World Cups, helping them win it all in 2018 as a teen. While Les Bleus lost in the showpiece on penalties to Argentina in ‘22, he was spectacular throughout the event, netting eight times. That included a hat trick in the final. Mbappe had another impressive campaign with Real Madrid, scoring 40 goals across all competitions. He bagged 25 in LaLiga, and another 15 in the Champions League. Although Ousmane Dembele is in fine form himself, Mbappe is still going to be the main man in the final third, and he’ll have every opportunity to be rattling the net.
Harry Kane (+700)
A third season in Germany was a picnic for Kane, who scored another 36 goals in Bundesliga action, and he surpassed 50 goals across all competitions. The Englishman is a massive piece for the Three Lions in their long-awaited pursuit of a World Cup, but he wasn’t the most productive in the last tournament, scoring just twice. Nevertheless, Kane is coming off a fine campaign, and England’s ability to draw penalties gives Kane a clear upper hand because he rarely misses from the spot. He scored 18 penalties this past season for club and country, including four for the Three Lions.
Lionel Messi (+1200)
Messi is quite high in the Golden Boot odds, and it makes sense. He single-handedly led Argentina to World Cup glory in Qatar with seven goals. However, he’s a lot older now, and his fitness remains a concern heading into the tournament. Messi limped off with a muscle fatigue issue only a couple of weeks ago for Inter Miami, and he’s in the midst of a grueling MLS season. I believe he’ll be key in Argentina’s run, but Julian Alvarez – who is younger and fresher – will be more of a factor for La Albiceleste.
Mikel Oyarzabal (+1400)
Oyarzabal isn’t a superstar, but he consistently produced the goods for Spain in World Cup Qualifying, scoring six in six appearances. The Real Sociedad attacker also had 15 goals this past season in LaLiga, and he remains a regular in La Roja’s starting XI. There’s so much talent in this Spanish squad, and with the service around him, Oyarzabal could be a dark horse for the Golden Boot.
Erling Haaland (+1400)
How can we discuss this award and not mention arguably the most lethal finisher in world football? Haaland will make his World Cup debut this summer, and it’s only fitting. The Norwegian rarely misses an opportunity to hit the back of the net, and he surpassed 30 goals once again in 2025-26. World Cup Qualifying was easy work for Haaland, who netted 16 in just eight appearances. He will get every chance to score goals in this tournament, but the service he receives is questionable.
World Cup Golden Boot Picks
Cristiano Ronaldo and Lamine Yamal are two other names to keep an eye on, but I think Ronaldo is very past his prime, and to me, Yamal is more of a creator for Spain than a goal-scorer. The Golden Boot race will come down to Mbappe and Kane because both of their teams will likely be standing in the latter stages of the tournament, giving them more opportunity to bag goals. With plus odds, put money on both.
Pick: Kylian Mbappe (+550), Harry Kane (+700)/TonyBet
