Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Alabama vs Mississippi State Odds
Alabama is a 6.5-point road favorite at football betting sites for Saturday’s SEC showdown, while the O/U is sitting around 60 points. That total makes sense considering these are two of the most productive offenses in the conference. Alabama is averaging 48 points per game, with Mississippi State right behind them at 43.
History heavily favors the Crimson Tide. Alabama have won 17 straight meetings against Mississippi State, with the Bulldogs’ last victory in the rivalry coming all the way back in 2007.
Alabama vs Mississippi State Analysis
Alabama have looked every bit like a national title contender through the opening month of the campaign. The Crimson Tide are unbeaten and have scored at least 45 points in every game, beating East Carolina, Kentucky, Florida State, and South Carolina. Kalen DeBoer’s group put together arguably its most complete performance of the season last weekend, cruising past the Gamecocks by 31 points.
Keelon Russell continues to show why he’s one of the most exciting quarterbacks in the country. The sophomore shredded South Carolina for 365 passing yards and four touchdowns while also finding the end zone with his legs. Russell has now thrown for over 1,100 yards this season and accounted for 11 total touchdowns, putting himself firmly in the early Heisman conversation.
While Alabama’s perfect start isn’t overly surprising, Mississippi State sitting at 4-0 certainly is. The Bulldogs went just 5-7 last season but have already put themselves in the national conversation under Jeff Lebby. After comfortable wins over ULM and Minnesota, Mississippi State went on the road to beat South Carolina 41-34 before returning home to take down a ranked Missouri team last weekend.
Kamario Taylor has been the driving force behind the Bulldogs’ impressive start. The sophomore has completed nearly 70% of his passes for 1,192 yards, 14 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. He’s also added 185 yards and another score on the ground. Taylor has been extremely efficient, but Saturday will be his toughest test of the season against an Alabama defense that allows just 20.3 points per game.
Mississippi State also has a legitimate rushing attack to complement Taylor, with Fluff Bothwell helping the Bulldogs average more than 200 yards per game on the ground. That balance will be important against the Tide, especially if the Bulldogs want to keep Russell and this explosive Alabama offense on the sideline.
Alabama vs Mississippi State Picks
Alabama have dominated this rivalry for nearly two decades, but this is arguably the best Mississippi State team we’ve seen in quite some time. The Bulldogs have an explosive quarterback, they can run the football, and they get the benefit of playing this one in Starkville.
The Crimson Tide are still the better team on paper, but 6.5 points feels like a lot against a Mississippi State squad that just beat a ranked Missouri team and has scored at least 31 points in every game. Alabama also have a massive showdown with Georgia on deck next weekend, which makes this a potential look-ahead spot. I’ll take the points with the underdog.
Pick: Mississippi State +6.5 (-120)/TonyBet
