Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Italy vs Belgium Odds
Soccer betting sportsbooks have Italy as a slim +129 favorite on home soil for Friday’s clash, while Belgium sits at +210. A draw is priced at +254 odds, and the O/U is set at 2.5 goals.
There’s a reason the Azzurri are a favorite. They’re unbeaten across five meetings with the Red Devils, winning on four occasions.
Italy vs Belgium Analysis
Since winning Euro 2020, Italy have been a sheer disappointment on the international stage. They failed to qualify for the last three major tournaments, missing out on the 2022 World Cup, Euro 2024, and this past summer’s World Cup. But Mancini’s men are ready to put that negativity behind them as they begin the Nations League campaign. In fact, the Azzurri have found considerable success in this competition. They’ve reached at least the knockout stage in each of the last three Nations League campaigns, finishing third in both 2020-21 and 2022-23 before reaching the quarterfinals in 2024-25.
Since Bosnia eliminated them in World Cup qualifying in March via penalties, Italy has notched back-to-back victories, beating Luxembourg and Greece back in June. Mancini has wasted no time making changes in his second tenure, handing nine players their first senior call-ups. He’s also left out a handful of notable names, including Manuel Locatelli, Federico Chiesa, and Mattia Zacagni, among others. We’ll see how his decisions play out.
The Red Devils are also heading into a new era after Rudi Garcia and the Belgian FA decided to not renew his contract in July, on the heels of their quarterfinal exit in the World Cup. While reaching the last eight was impressive for a team that many believed was past their best, Garcia faced criticism throughout the tournament for how he handled the squad.
Now, van Bommel, a former Dutch international, has taken charge. The ex-midfielder most recently managed Belgian outfit Royal Antwerp for two seasons. The usual names are in van Bommel’s squad, and Romeo Lavia is one player who makes his return following his impressive start to the campaign with Chelsea. Several key pieces won’t be available, but we’ll get into that below.
Italy vs Belgium Injury News
Italy have already been forced into several changes ahead of Friday's opener. Federico Dimarco and Bryan Cristante both withdrew from the squad due to physical issues, with Matteo Ruggeri and Samuele Ricci called up as replacements. Marco Palestra is also unavailable through injury, while Alessandro Bastoni will miss the match through suspension.
Belgium will be without two notable players, with Jérémy Doku and Amadou Onana both missing the Nations League window through injury. Thibaut Courtois is also absent, though not due to injury, as the goalkeeper has asked to sit out these matches to manage his workload.
Italy vs Belgium Picks
As you can see, there are a lot of changes for each team, which makes this clash difficult to predict. Italy has been consistent against Belgium, and with just one defeat in the previous eight meetings, I like the Azzurri to capture a matchday one victory.
Pick: Italy +129/TonyBet
