Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Manchester United vs Manchester City Odds
Manchester City are a slight +114 moneyline favorite at soccer betting sites. Manchester United sit as a +220 home underdog. A draw is priced at +265, and the O/U is set at three goals.
In fact, the Red Devils beat City 2-0 at the Theatre of Dreams in January in Michael Carrick's first match back in charge. United have won three of the last five competitive meetings between the rivals, with City winning just once during that span.
Manchester United vs Manchester City Analysis
Manchester United's start to the season hasn't exactly gone to plan. After finishing third last term under Carrick, the Red Devils opened their Premier League campaign with a disappointing 2-0 defeat to newly promoted Hull City. They responded with a 5-2 victory over Ipswich Town but dropped another two points last weekend, conceding late in a 2-2 draw with Everton. Four points from three matches isn't what this club would've envisioned, especially after their impressive finish to 2025-26.
There are reasons for optimism, though. United returned to the Champions League with a convincing 4-0 victory over Sabah on Thursday, with Matheus Cunha, Bruno Fernandes, Benjamin Sesko and Lisandro Martinez all finding the back of the net. Sesko's return to fitness is particularly important, with the striker scoring in back-to-back matches after missing nearly three months with a shin injury. United have plenty of attacking talent between Sesko, Fernandes, Bryan Mbeumo, Cunha and Marcus Rashford, but their defensive issues could be a problem against a City side firing on all cylinders.
Manchester City are beginning a new era of their own under Enzo Maresca, and the early returns have been very encouraging. The Citizens are the only Premier League side with a perfect record through three matches, beating Bournemouth, Crystal Palace and Coventry City while scoring seven goals and conceding just twice. Their latest league victory wasn't overly convincing, with Erling Haaland's first-half strike proving to be the difference in a narrow 1-0 win over Coventry. Nevertheless, three wins from three is all that matters.
City also took care of business in Europe on Tuesday, beating Porto 2-0 away from home behind a Haaland brace. The Norwegian already has five goals in three appearances this season and remains the biggest threat to United's vulnerable backline. Maresca's men haven't necessarily hit top gear yet, but they've found ways to win while adjusting to a new manager and several new faces. Sunday's trip to Old Trafford is easily their toughest league assignment to date and will be a stiff test. For what it’s worth, Haaland has eight goals in seven Premier League games against United.
Manchester United vs Manchester City Injury News
Manchester United remain without several players ahead of Sunday's derby. Amad Diallo, Matthijs de Ligt, Manuel Ugarte, Carlos Baleba and Tom Heaton are all sidelined, with Baleba still waiting to make his debut as he recovers from an ankle injury. Luke Shaw missed Thursday's Champions League win over Sabah after dealing with a cramp but is expected to be in contention against City.
Manchester City's injury situation is far more encouraging. Nico O'Reilly is fully fit and available after recovering from the back issue that kept him out against Coventry and Porto. Jérémy Doku is the Citizens' only confirmed absentee, with Maresca revealing that Sunday's derby will come too soon for the winger as he continues to recover from a calf injury.
Manchester United vs Manchester City Picks
It’s definitely hard to overlook United’s recent dominance of City, but the visitors are in much better form, and they’ve hardly missed a beat in this young Premier League campaign. With the Red Devils’ backline looking vulnerable, I like the Cityzens at plus money. They will leave Old Trafford with all three points.
Pick: Manchester City +114/TonyBet
