World Cup 2026: Belgium vs Spain Odds, Best Bets & Prediction

Betway odds, up to date at the time of writing and subject to change.

July 10 in Los Angeles brings the only all-European quarterfinal of the 2026 World Cup, a fixture that stands out in our World Cup quarterfinal predictions as one of the most tactically fascinating clashes of the knockout stage. Spain arrive with a flawless defensive record: zero goals conceded across five matches. Belgium, meanwhile, come in full of confidence after dismantling the USA 4-1 in the Round of 16.

Under 2.5 Goals: +100

Spain have kept a clean sheet in all five of their tournament fixtures and have stayed under 2.5 goals in three of them. Belgium, despite their eye-catching win against the USA, failed to score in one of their three group games and must manage Romelu Lukaku carefully due to a thigh complaint. The market prices the Over 2.5 probability at around 57.3%, a figure that, in our view, underestimates Spain's structural defensive solidity and the cumulative fatigue Belgium carry after extra time against Senegal in the Round of 32. We expect a tight, low-scoring affair decided by a single moment of quality.

Betway and 888sport odds, correct at the time of writing and subject to change without notice.

The Belgian side

Belgium arrive in the last eight carried by the momentum of their 4-1 win over the USA, the most convincing performance of their campaign. But persistent vulnerabilities remain beneath the surface: the Belgian side failed to score in one of their three group matches and Romelu Lukaku, their primary striker, is being managed due to a right thigh issue that limits his explosiveness. Charles De Ketelaere has been Belgium's most consistent attacking threat throughout the tournament, yet he represents an individual against a cohesive Spanish collective. Kevin De Bruyne did not start against the USA, with coach Rudi Garcia preferring a more compact midfield setup. Physical fatigue is also a genuine factor: Belgium played extra time against Senegal in the Round of 32, logging significantly more minutes than Spain across the knockout stage so far. For bettors, this wear reduces Belgium's capacity to press at high intensity for 90 minutes, which plays into Spain's hands and supports a low-scoring prediction.

Predicted Lineup Belgium (4-2-3-1): Courtois; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; Vanaken, Raskin, Lukebakio, Tielemans, Trossard; De Ketelaere.

The Spanish side

Spain represent the gold standard at this World Cup: four wins and a draw, zero goals conceded, a possession-based game that suffocates opponents without offering space in transition. Rodri is fully fit and has completed 90 minutes in each of Spain's five matches, acting as the defensive anchor of the midfield and setting the defensive structure that has shut out every opponent in the tournament. Lamine Yamal, at 18, remains the most dangerous accelerator in the competition, while Dani Olmo drives creativity through the center. Mikel Merino, who scored the winner against Portugal in the 90th minute, could earn more playing time in this quarterfinal. For bettors, the combination of Rodri anchoring midfield, a clean-sheet defensive record, and Spain's tempo control makes Belgium's attacking projections deeply uncertain: the ideal profile of a match decided by a single goal.

Predicted Lineup Spain (4-2-3-1): Simon; Porro, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Dani Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal.

Betway and 888sport odds, correct at the time of writing

This quarterfinal should play out at a low scoring tempo. Spain have not conceded a single goal in five matches and have restricted every opponent to a minimal number of clear-cut chances. This is also the only all-European quarterfinal at this World Cup: the only recent competitive head-to-head at this stage came in 1986, when Belgium eliminated Spain on penalties. Our prediction is a Spain win in a match with fewer than three goals, the Spanish side controlling possession and denying Belgium the transition opportunities their attack relies on.

The market prices Spain at approximately 61.9% to win (odds -163). Our estimate aligns with that, but the value lies elsewhere: the implied probability of Over 2.5 goals at -134 is around 57.3%, while our estimate sits closer to 35%, a significant gap that underpins our Under 2.5 selection. Both Betway and 888sport are available through our Canadian sportsbook comparison alongside the best current odds for this match.