World Cup 2026: Germany vs Paraguay Odds, Best Bets & Prediction

Odds from Betway, correct at time of writing and subject to change without notice.

Germany face Paraguay in this World Cup Round of 32 on June 29 at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts. The Germans enter as heavy favourites after topping Group E, while Paraguay edged through as best third-place finisher in Group D.

Nagelsmann's side have shown clinical quality throughout the group stage, while Paraguay have relied almost entirely on defensive solidity, registering just two goals in three group matches. The Guaranis enter this knockout fixture without their most creative midfielder, Diego Gomez, who is suspended after picking up two yellow cards in the group stage.

Under 2.5 goals: odds of +110

Germany's only group-stage match against a defensively-minded opponent, Ivory Coast, ended 2-1 with a late winner. Paraguay, who scored just two goals in the group stage and now lose their primary creator to suspension, present an even more passive attacking threat. The +110 odds on Under 2.5 Goals represent genuine value against the market's implied 48% probability, which we estimate is closer to 57% when accounting for Paraguay's near-zero attacking output and the historical 1-0 precedent from the 2002 World Cup.

Betway and 888sport odds, correct at the time of writing and subject to change without notice.

Germany

The Mannschaft topped Group E with six points, built around an exceptional attacking unit. The Musiala-Wirtz combination behind Havertz provides Germany with some of the most technically gifted midfield play in the tournament, while Denzel Undav finished the group stage with three goals. The key absentee is Nico Schlotterbeck, ruled out for the tournament with an ankle ligament injury. The Tah-Rudiger centre-back partnership is capable but has yet to be tested in a high-pressure knockout environment. Against a Paraguay side relying on the counter-attack, how they manage fast transitions will be the decisive factor for our Under 2.5 prediction.

Probable lineup Germany (4-2-3-1): Neuer; Kimmich, Tah, Rudiger, Brown; Nmecha, Pavlovic; Musiala, Wirtz, Havertz; Undav.

Paraguay

Paraguay advanced from Group D with four points, but their underlying statistics reveal an attacking side with almost nothing to offer. Their expected goals (xG) against Turkey and Australia combined did not reach 0.80, underlining just how passive their offensive output has been. Alfaro's team operates with a compact 4-4-2 low block designed to frustrate opponents and strike on the counter, a system that worked perfectly against Turkey (1-0) but failed to create anything against Australia (0-0). Without Diego Gomez to drive forward in midfield, and with Alderete a doubt through injury, Paraguay's ability to threaten Germany in any meaningful way appears severely limited.

Probable lineup Paraguay (4-4-2): Gill; Caceres, Alderete, Velazquez, Alonso; Almiron, Galarza, Cubas, Mauricio; Avalos, Enciso.

Betway and 888sport odds, correct at the time of writing

The market prices Germany at roughly 75% to win (odds 1.33). Our estimate of 84% reflects a clearer edge than the market implies: a full-strength German attack against a Paraguay side missing its key creator, whose group-stage attacking output was near zero. The Guaranis managed just one goal in three matches, and their xG total against Turkey and Australia barely reached 0.80.

The only World Cup meeting between these nations came in 2002, when Germany edged past Paraguay 1-0 in the Round of 16. That precedent reinforces our view that this will be a tight, controlled match rather than a high-scoring affair. In our Canadian sports betting comparison, the Under 2.5 Goals at +110 stands out as the clearest value in this fixture.

The market's implied probability for Under 2.5 Goals at +110 is roughly 48%; we estimate true probability between 55% and 60%. In our view, the market is overly influenced by Germany's 7-1 win over Curacao, rather than their 2-1 result against Ivory Coast, who are structurally far more comparable to Paraguay as an opponent. A 1-0 or 2-0 German win remains the most likely outcome.