2026 AFC East Over/Under Win Totals Futures Market: Breakdown & Value Picks - July 22
All odds provided by Betway.
2026 AFC East Over/Under Win Totals - Betting Odds
Buffalo Bills
The weakness of this division makes us feel like the Bills could put up a big number in the regular season. They could easily sweep their six AFC East games, but we’ll give them five there. They should be able to split their AFC West games, and the same goes for their matchups with the deep NFC North.
That gives us nine wins, which means it all comes down to their three extras: at Houston in Week 1, at the Rams, and vs. Baltimore. That’s about as tough as it gets. But we think Josh Allen and the boys snag two of those three, giving them 11 wins for the campaign.
Best Bet: Buffalo Bills Over 10.5 Wins (-120)
New England Patriots
The boys in Boston might not like it, but we’re expecting a big back step with the Patriots this season. They lost the Super Bowl in embarrassing fashion and their head coach Mike Vrabel somehow one-upped that by having the most embarrassing offseason in recent memory. Shouts out to the $800k lady Diana Russini.
Four wins out of six in the division feels reasonable, but overall, this team could very well start 0-4 before going on a run. At Seattle, vs. Pittsburgh, at Jacksonville, and at Buffalo is a real gauntlet to start the campaign. But after that, they get the Jets and Raiders at home (two easy wins), then road matchups with the Bears and Dolphins. If they didn’t go at least 3-1 there we’d be shocked.
At 3-5 entering the back nine of the season, a four-game stretch against Packers, Lions, Chargers, and Bills is likely to result in a 2-2 run. To finish off, they should win home dates with the Vikings and Dolphins and a road matchup with the Jets while losing at the Chiefs and against the Broncos. That leaves us with an 8-9 record. We’ll play it safe by taking their plus odds to finish with under 9.5 wins.
Best Bet: New England Patriots Under 9.5 Wins (+125)
New York Jets
Now we arrive at the doldrums of the division. And the NFL. The Jets still don’t have much of a direction. Geno Smith could do even worse with the Raiders than he did with the Raiders last year. He can succeed when he’s in a good spot, but this is very far from a good spot.
Two divisional wins feels fair, and even a bit generous. The only win we can see them getting against the NFC North and AFC West is against the Raiders. Their three extras are at Tennessee in Week 1, home to the Browns, and away to the Cardinals. If they win two of those they finish with five wins. But we feel it’s more likely they lose two of those three than it is that they win all three, so we’re taking under 5.5 wins here.
Best Bet: New York Jets Under 5.5 Wins (+100)
Miami Dolphins
This could easily be the worst team in the league in 2026. Miami fans want them to be, and front office brass would seem to concur. Teams are very rarely swept in their division, so we’re giving Miami at least one win there. Like the Jets, they won’t beat anyone in the NFC North or AFC West other than the Raiders. But considering they’re playing in Week 1, we’re not super confident on that.
Their three additional games are not inspiring a lot of confidence either: at the 49ers, hosting Cincy, and at the Colts. They can maybe beat the Colts, but they’re not winning those other two. That means that we’re giving them three wins, and that’s being pretty generous. We’re going to take a shot here and go below that and say they get only two Ws: one in the division, and one against either the Colts or Raiders
Best Bet: Miami Dolphins Under 2.5 Wins (+310)
