New York Giants vs Washington Commanders: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 10

Thursday, November 12, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET · MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ · Prime Video

Odds courtesy of Bet365, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

New York and Washington already met five weeks ago, in a 27-27 overtime tie, and now get a Thursday Night Football rematch at MetLife Stadium. The Giants arrive at 5-2-1 behind a stingy pass defence, while the Commanders show up 2-5-1 with a thin WR corps and a team that does not rank in the top 20 in the NFL in scoring or scoring defence. I like one side of this spread a lot more than the market's 2.5 points for the Giants suggest.

New York Giants -2.5: -111

My best bet is the Giants to cover at home. Washington has a banged up WR corps and only has two wins. New York's pass defence has allowed just 189.3 yards a game, and I don't see a thinned-out Commanders passing attack or their defence doing enough against it to keep this inside the number.

Malik Nabers Over 69.5 Receiving Yards: -116

Nabers leads the Giants in receiving yards and while he only had 43 in the last game he had over 100 in the previous four games, including 121 yards in the Week 5 meeting with Washington. The Commanders pass defence only ranks 30th in the NFL and New York will look to take advantage of that. I like the Over 69.5 receiving yards here, big time.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Giants side

J.J. McCarthy was injured in the last game and replaced by the QB he replaced in Jameis Winson and listed as questionable for the Thursday night game. Cam Skattebo is doubtful with a hamstring injury and backup Tyrone Tracy Jr. is already on injured reserve, thinning the depth behind him. New York is banged up but their defence has only given up a total of 32 points over their last two games. The Giants are coming off a  19-11 road win over Philadelphia that leaned on defence rather than big plays. 

The Commanders side

Washington is coming off a  20-13 loss to the Rams in which the offence managed just 13 points, the third time in five games it has failed to reach 20. Jayden Daniels remains an efficient, mobile quarterback, but his pass-catching options are depleted. Rachaad White has taken over the lead running back role with Jacory Croskey-Merritt on injured reserve, and Washington's offence is averaging just 21.5 points a game this season, which only ranks 21st in the league.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Giants Moneyline	Under 42 points
-133	-110
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
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Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Giants moneyline odds of -133 on Bet365 imply a de-vigged win probability of 55% for New York against 45% for Washington. My number sits higher, around 60%, because the market doesn't fully account for how the Commanders have struggled on both sides of the ball, but they did play pretty good D in the loss to the Rams in their last game. I'm leaning toward the Giants to win and cover in their house for their third win in a row.

I'm backing a 24-16 Giants win. New York is 3-1 at home this season, and their last games have been won with solid defensive efforts.  A 24-16 final clears the 2.5-point spread and finishes under Bet365's 42.5-point total.