Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills: NFL Predictions, Odds & Picks | Week 9

Monday, November 9, 2026 · 8:15 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN · ESPN

Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

Minnesota enters Week 9 off its first loss of the season,  a 19-15 defeat at Detroit that ended a six-game win streak. Buffalo arrives at 6-1 as well, and Monday night in Minneapolis pits two of the NFL's most contrasting rosters against each other. Among this week's NFL picks for Week 9, this one pairs a defence-driven Minnesota team against a Buffalo offence built to put up a ton of points, a genuine clash of styles in this non-conference primetime clash.

Minnesota Vikings +3.5: -120

I'm backing Minnesota to cover the 3.5 points at home. The Vikings' defence ranks first in the NFL in points allowed at 13.3 ppg, while Buffalo's unit sits tied for 24th, giving up 25.9 ppg. I think the market is leaning too hard on Buffalo's offensive totals and not enough on the fact that Minnesota's defence, not Buffalo's, is the best unit Monday night will see. A field-goal margin either way keeps this number live, and I like Minnesota to either win outright or lose a FG-score game.

Odds from Bet365 and Sports Interaction, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The Minnesota side

Minnesota's defence is the reason for the 6-1 start, holding six of its seven opponents under 20 points, including quality wins over a Chicago team that is now 6-2 and a Green Bay team at 5-3. Kyler Murray is Minnesota's quarterback, but the offence remains the league's weak link at 27th, averaging 20 ppg. That imbalance means the Vikings will lean on the ground game and and their defense to get the W. 

The Buffalo side

Buffalo's offence is first in the league at 33.3 ppg, with Josh Allen involved in 17 total touchdowns, passing and rushing combined, across his first six games this season, and  a 36-10 win over Baltimore extended the Bills record to 6-1 in the third win in a row. Buffalo has scored 30 or more points in five of its seven outings. The issue for Buffalo remains its own defence, which is why I expect Minnesota to stay within the spread.

Bet365	Sports Interaction
Vikings +3.5	Under 45.5 points
-118	-112
Bet Safety Net Up To C$1,000 or Bet C$10 and Get C$50 in Bonus Bets	125% Welcome Bonus Up To C$750
Bet Now	Bet Now

Bet365 and Sports Interaction odds, correct at time of writing and subject to change.

The moneyline prices Buffalo as a 63% favourite once the vig is removed, with Minnesota at 37%. I have this closer to 59%-41% in Buffalo's favour. Four points of separation is enough to say I think the market is too confident in Buffalo, asking the shakier side of its roster to hold down a Minnesota team that, while limited offensively, rarely beats itself and finds ways to win close games.

Minnesota Vikings: Last 5 Games

Buffalo Bills: Last 5 Games

I'm calling this a 23-20 Buffalo win, with Minnesota covering the 3.5 and the total landing under 45.5. Minnesota's own games have cleared 45 combined points only once in seven tries this season, even with Buffalo's offence pushing the pace from the other side. A three-point Bills win keeps the Vikings covering and the total going Under in this killer Monday night matchup.