2026 AFC South Over/Under Win Totals Futures Market: Breakdown & Value Picks - July 27
All odds provided by Betway.
2026 AFC South Over/Under Win Totals - Betting Odds
Houston Texans
The Texans get the benefit of a second-place schedule in 2026 despite finishing with 12 wins in 2025. They have a solid offensive line and probably the best defence in the league. But can C.J. Stroud become a bonafide franchise guy? We’re leaning to the negative on that one, but like last season, that won’t stop Houston from racking up wins.
We’re giving them four wins in the division, as we expect a split with the Jags and one of the Colts and Titans to get an upset. Winning more than one against their three extra opponents in the Bills, Chargers, and Packers would be asking a lot as well, with two coming on the road and the other a Week 1 home date with Buffalo.
The AFC North and NFC East are no slouches, either. We expect them to split those eight games, giving them nine wins by our calculations. But just to be safe, we’ll take the under on them to win 10.5 games.
Best Bet: Houston Texans Under 10.5 Wins (-166)
Jacksonville Jaguars
We like the Jaguars more than any other team in this division for a very simple reason: they have the best quarterback. Trevor Lawrence was great last year, and he nearly beat Josh Allen in a playoff matchup too. They won’t go 13-4 again, but we think the Jags are going to be a frisky team in 2026.
They’ll beat Cleveland in Week 1, but they have a tough run after that. Let’s not forget, they’re playing a first-place schedule this year. With matchups against Denver, New England, Cincy, Philly, and Houston following that, Jacksonville could very well be 2-4 heading into their Week 7 bye.
But it gets a lot easier after that. After the bye, they play the Colts, Ravens, Titans, Giants, and the Titans again in a five-week span. They should go 4-1 there with a shot to go 5-0. We’ll stick with four though, bringing them to 6-5. They should be able to go 3-3 against the Bears, Steelers, Texans, Cowboys, Commanders, and Colts to wrap up the season 9-8. And we expect a playoff spot too.
Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars Over 8.5 Wins (-140)
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts went on a Cinderella run to start the 2025 campaign, but the bottom fell out as they lost eight of their final nine games of that campaign. That kind of thing sticks with you. And we think it will stick with Indy too.
Jonathan Taylor is a beast, and the team seemed to fall apart without Daniel Jones, which would speak to his quality too. But we just can’t wrap our heads around him as a playoff QB. The Texans and Jags are better teams, so we’re giving Indy no more than three division wins this year.
Against the AFC North and NFC East, we think two wins for the Colts seems reasonable, though three is possible. They’re remaining games against the Dolphins, Vikings, and Chiefs should result in one, maybe two more wins depending on how healthy Patrick Mahomes is, as their matchup is in Week 2. Mahomes has just been cleared for practice, however, so he will likely be ready to go.
Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts Under 7.5 Wins (+115)
Tennessee Titans
The Titans shelled out a good amount of money in free agency and seemingly shored up their coaching staff with head coach Robert Saleh handling the defense and Brian Daboll tapped as the offensive coordinator. But just because they left New York doesn’t mean they’ll succeed in Nashville.
Apart from rookie Carnell Tate, there’s not a lot here to get excited about. They’ll win more than the three games they did last year, but not by much. A couple of division wins, early matchups with the two New York teams, and contests with the Browns and Raiders give them hope for six wins, but that seems like wishful thinking. And just in case Bobby and Brian actually do start to turn this thing around, we’ll go up one number to 7.5 for the under.
Best Bet: Tennessee Titans Under 7.5 Wins (-186)
