UFC Winnipeg: Burns vs. Malott Main Event Betting Predictions & Odds

After a riveting pay-per-view event last week, the UFC returns to the free Fight Night format for April 18’s card in Winnipeg, Canada. Originally an Ottawa event, this card will be the UFC’s first visit to Winnipeg in nine years and third overall–and the matchmakers were definitely keeping that location in mind when they set the main event matchup.

This Canadian event will be headlined by one of the best Canadians on the UFC roster, welterweight knockout artist Mike Malott, in the biggest fight of his career. Standing in Malott’s way in the octagon at the Canada Life Centre will be former welterweight title challenger and current No. 11 contender Gilbert Burns.

Malott is a heavy favorite for this matchup, but the moment and the opponent are the biggest and best he’s ever seen. Will the Burlington, Ontario native rise to the challenge, or will his aging opponent achieve one last moment of glory as his career winds down? Read on for the top UFC betting odds on the main event, as well as our analysis and betting picks for the scrap!

UFC Winnipeg: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott Welterweight Main Event Picks & Odds - April 18

All odds provided by Betway.

Tale of the Tape:

Category	Gilbert Burns	Mike Malott
Height	5’10” (1.78 m)	6’1” (1.85 m)
Weight	170 lbs (77 kg)	170 lbs (77 kg)
Reach	71” (180 cm)	73” (185 cm)
Age	39	34
Nickname	Durinho	Proper
Fighting Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed/Minute	3.15	3.93
Strikes Absorbed/Minute	3.64	3.06
Takedown Average	2.12	1.88
Takedown Defense	53 %	14 %
Current Ranking	No. 11	Unranked
Fighting Out Of	Boca Raton, Florida, United States	Burlington, Ontario, Canada

Fight Analysis & Prediction

No. 11 Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malottweight Welterweight Bout Betting Odds

Fighter	Moneyline	Spread	Rounds	Win by Decision	Win by KO/TKO/DQ	Win by Submission	Go the Distance
Gilbert Burns	+220	+5.5 (-160)	O2.5 (-105)	+800	+650	+625	+320
Mike Malott	-270	-5.5 (-210)	U2.5 (-125)	+550	-110	+625	-450

Mike Malott (13-2-1) hasn’t had a ton of big matchups in his eight-fight career with the UFC. But the last time he fought someone in the same universe as Gilbert Burns (22-9) was when he was finished by the crafty Neil Magny in a surprise loss January 2024. That might be a worry for some, but not us.

Malott has gone 3-0 since then, earning a solid decision win over prover welterweight Kevin Holland last October. Meanwhile, “Durinho” seems to be wilting to Father Time. He has lost four straight fights coming into this one, and two of the last three have come by way of finish. The wily Brazilian is not what he used to be.

Malott had a similar opportunity to really prove himself in that Magny fight, and we don’t think he will miss his second shot. Burns is a hair under 40, but Malott is no spring chicken either. He’s 34, so it’s pretty much poop or get off the pot time for him here. If he loses this fight to Burns, he might not get another ranked matchup.

Burns used to be as durable as they come, but three of his six losses since 2022 have come by KO/TKO, and Malott has absolute concrete in his fists. Malott is like a younger, stronger, better version of Burns. He can grapple well, and he’s got massive power in his hands. Burns is just a gatekeeper at this point, and Malott will be looking to win this one convincingly on home soil.

Best Bet: Mike Malott to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (-110)