UFC 333: Yan vs. Dvalishvili Predictions & Betting Odds

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The UFC returns to the spotlight this weekend–kind of. There’s a card packed with star power and two championship fights scheduled for UFC 333 in Abu Dhabi on Saturday. Unfortunately for the North American fans, that Abu Dhabi location means the main card gets going on Saturday morning at 11 AM instead of on Saturday evening. Make sure your rooster’s crowing for you!
In the co-main event, we get the first of the two championship fights on the docket: current and two-time bantamweight champion Petr Yan looks to hold off No. 1 contender and former champ Merab Dvalishvili one last time. The pair are 1-1 each other in two high profile fights since 2023, though Yan won the one with the belt on the line.
Will the Russian do it again, or will the Georgian reclaim the belt and start a new winning streak? Read on for our tale of the tape, fight breakdown, predictions, and the latest UFC betting odds from the top Canadian sportsbooks!
Highlights
- Petr Yan won the previous matchup in a dominant unanimous decision
- Merab Dvalishvili had won 13 straight fights before his loss to Yan in December 2025
- Yan, the current champ, is the slight -155 odds favourite in the UFC 333 co-main event
UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev Featherweight Main Event Bout - October 24 - 11 A.M. EDT
All odds provided by Powerplay.
Tale of the Tape:
| Category | Petr Yan | Merab Dvalishvili |
| Height | 5’7” (1.70 cm) | 5’6” (1.68 cm) |
| Weight | 135 lbs (61 kg) | 135 lbs (61 kg) |
| Reach | 67” (170 cm) | 68” (173 cm) |
| Age | 33 | 35 |
| Nickname | No Mercy | The Machine |
| Fighting Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Significant Strikes Landed/Minute | 5.16 | 4.42 |
| Strikes Absorbed/Minute | 4.24 | 2.80 |
| Takedown Average | 1.70 | 5.97 |
| Takedown Defense | 86 % | 76 % |
| Current Ranking | Champion | No. 1 |
| Fighting Out Of | Yekaterinburg, Russia | Long Island, New York, U.S. |
Fight Analysis & Prediction
(C) Petr Yan vs. No. 1 Merab Dvalishvili Bantamweight Championship Co-Main Event Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Spread | Rounds | Win by Decision | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | Win by Submission | Go the Distance |
| Petr Yan | -144 | -5.5 (+190) | O4.5 (-340) | +115 | +500 | +1,800 | Yes (-320) |
| Merab Dvalishvili | +122 | +5.5 (-250) | U4.5 (+250) | +200 | +1,100 | +1,100 | No (+225) |
Last December, Petr Yan (20-5) was finally able to reclaim the bantamweight belt that had been taken from him so harshly through a DQ against Aljamain Sterling way back in April 2022. Subsequent losses to Sean O’Malley and his opponent on Saturday, Merab Dvalishvili (21-5), made it seem like Yan was all but finished.
But he has had quite the comeback since then, winning four straight against impressive competition. He was excellent against Dvalishvili last time, holding “The Machine” without a takedown early in the fight and bloodying up the Georgian. Dvalishvili did eventually get his takedown, but by then it was too late, and Yan was actually able to win the championship rounds too.
Some will say that Dvalishvili’s loss was because he fought four times in a year in 2025. Which is a fair point. He was coming off a five-round decision over Cory Sandhagen just two months before he fought Yan. That’s not much time at all to prepare.
But is there really that much nuance to Dvalishvili’s game? He just spams takedowns as often as he can for as long as he can (which is very long). He didn’t look tired in the later rounds against Yan either, he was just getting bested.
We think Yan has the blueprint to silence “The Machine” and he’s going to employ it again in Abu Dhabi. And Dvalishvili is too tough to be knocked out, so we’ll nab some extra value by taking Yan’s method of victory prop.
Best Bet: Petr Yan to Win via Decision (+115)
T&Cs Apply
Alex Murray has been a consistent presence on BettingTop10 since he joined the team in 2020 just after graduating from Ryerson University’s Sport Media program in 2019. He has written for publications including theScore, Sporting News, FanSided, FantasyPros, and more over his 6+ years in the field. Alex has also been a lifelong athlete and sports fan who has channeled that love into his entertaining writing style and shrewd betting strategies.

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