UFC Oklahoma City: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman Tale of the Tape, Predictions, & Betting Odds

The UFC returns to Oklahoma City for the first time in nearly a decade when they take over the Paycom Center this Saturday on July 18. It’s Fight Night 281, so it won’t have the fanfare that last week’s pay-per-view had, but the main event could be a real doozy.

No. 2 middleweight contender Dricus Du Plessis lost his championship belt in his last bout, and he’ll look to get back in the title conversation at 185 pounds with a win against the former long-time welterweight champion, Kamaru Usman.

Du Plessis, the younger man by seven years and the more comfortable at middleweight, is the significant favourite here. But as we saw last week, underdogs are nothing to scoff at in the UFC, where anyone could go down at any moment. Just ask Usman himself.

Read on for the tale of the tape and top UFC betting odds as well as our predictions and best bet for this intriguing matchup of two former champs in lovely Oklahoma City on Saturday night!

UFC Oklahoma City: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman Main Event Bout - Tale of the Tape, Picks, & Odds - July 18

All odds provided by Powerplay.

Tale of the Tape:

Fight Analysis & Prediction

No. 2 Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman Main Event Bout Betting Odds

Neither fighter has been in the octagon since last summer, so they could be said to be equally rested or rusty.

But one might think that a young and spry guy like Dricus Du Plessis (23-3) at 32 years old would have an advantage over a 39-year-old seemingly over-the-hill Kamaru Usman (21-4) who is moving up 15 pounds from his normal 170 to fight at middleweight.

The Nigerian Nightmare lost his only ever middleweight fight to Khamzat Chimaev. But that was an extremely competitive majority decision. The same can’t be said for Du Plessis’ last outing against Chimaev last August.

In that one, the South African was absolutely smothered by the Chechen, who was successful on a whopping 12 of 17 takedowns. He didn’t miss one until the fourth round. He had the guy on the ground for nearly 22 minutes in that 25-minute fight. Du Plessis has an ugly 35 percent takedown defense rate now because of it.

And guess who is the UFC’s active leader in control time? Kamaru Usman, at nearly 2 hours and 27 minutes. Du Plessis is aggressive, and the savvy Usman can use that against him to get him to the mat where he can frustrate and exhaust his opponent.

Usman moving up to 185 pounds isn’t actually that big a deal either. He walks around at 190 anyway, and having to cut less weight could actually be an advantage for someone who’s pushing 40.

If you want to go safe, take this one to go the distance at -115 odds: four of Usman’s last fight have gone to the bell, and same for Du Plessis’ last four straight. On top of that, Usman’s only loss by finish since his second career fight in 2013 was that once-in-a-lifetime kick from Leon Edwards, and Du Plessis hasn’t been stopped since 2018 when he was at KSW.

The Nigerian Nightmare wants to join the champ-champ club (a champion in two UFC divisions) and Du Plessis wants to win back the belt that he so humiliatingly lost last year. We like Usman’s big moneyline +190 odds here as we think this should be billed more as a pick ‘em and his style could be just the thing to thwart Stillknocks.

Best Bet: Kamaru Usman Moneyline (+190)