UFC Oklahoma City: Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan Tale of the Tape, Predictions, & Betting Odds

The UFC heads to the Sooner State for UFC Fight Night 281 this Saturday, July 18. It’s their first trip to Oklahoma City since 2017 and their third overall. Former champs Dricus Du Plessis and Kamaru Usman will headline the main card in what could be a middleweight title eliminator, but the co-main event also has major implications for the fellas at 185 pounds.

No. 11 contender Jared Cannonier, decidedly past his prime years, will look to stay relevant in the division’s top 15 with a win over the hard-charging No. 12 Christian Leroy Duncan. This is a classic gatekeeper versus up-and-comer matchup.

Can Tha Killa Gorilla pull off one more upset victory, or will CLD continue his scorching hot run and keep climbing the middleweight rankings slowly but surely? Read on for the very best UFC betting odds as well as our analysis and best bets for the co-main event on Saturday!

UFC Oklahoma City: Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan Co-Main Event Bout - Tale of the Tape, Picks, & Odds - July 18 - 8 P.M. EDT

All odds provided by Powerplay.

Tale of the Tape:

Category	Jared Cannonier	Christian Leroy Duncan
Height	5’11” (1.80 m)	6’2” (1.88 m)
Weight	185 lbs (84 kg)	185 lbs (84 kg)
Reach	77.5” (197 cm)	79” (201 cm)
Age	42	30
Nickname	Tha Killa Gorilla	CLD
Fighting Stance	Orthodox	Switch
Significant Strikes Landed/Minute	4.42	4.43
Strikes Absorbed/Minute	4.35	2.59
Takedown Average	0.54	0.33
Takedown Defense	65 %	63 %
Current Ranking	No. 11	No. 12
Fighting Out Of	Phoenix, Arizona, U.S.	Gloucester, England

Fight Analysis & Prediction

No. 11 Jared Cannonier vs. No. 12 Christian Leroy Duncan Co-Main Event Bout Betting Odds

Fighter	Moneyline	Spread	Rounds	Win by Decision	Win by KO/TKO/DQ	Win by Submission	Go the Distance
Jared Cannonier	+290	+3.5 (+122)	O2.5 (-160)	+650	+650	+2,500	Yes (-125)
Christian Leroy Duncan	-370	-3.5 (-155)	U2.5 (+125)	+120	+165	+2,000	No (-105)

30-year-old Christian Leroy Duncan (14-2) comes into this “prove-it” fight on a bit of a tear. He lost a decision to Gregory Rodrigues in 2024 but has been perfect ever since, winning four in a row. Two of those came via precise spinning attacks, and another was a pretty impressive decision win against Roman Dolidze that saw him swipe the Georgian’s No. 12 ranking.

Jared Cannonier (18-9) has been very up and down since losing the middleweight title to Israel Adesanya in 2022. After that, he scored tough wins against future champ Sean Strickland and title challenger Marvin Vettori. But then he lost back-to-back fights to Caio Borralho and Nassourdine Imavov. He seemed to be back when he beat Rodrigues in a decision, but a few months later he was dominated by Michael Page and his unorthodox style.

Cannonier might not look it, but he turned 42 years old a few months ago. And Tha Killa Gorilla is all about aggression and energy. That’s going to be tougher to maintain as Father Time continues to hit him with body work.

Duncan, meanwhile, has shown himself to be a fun, varied, and very powerful striker. He stays busy, he’s got quick hands, and he’s tough to nail down as well, allowing just 2.59 significant strikes per minute, which is ninth-best in the division.

CLD will get a win here, it’s not often that guys lose when they have 12 years on their opponent. But the -370 moneyline odds are not speaking to us at all. They’re stuck up, is what they are. So we look elsewhere at the party to find us some value. CLD to win via decision is the most likely at +120 odds, with KO/TKO not far behind at +165 odds.

Considering the tough and gritty Cannonier has only been finished once since 2018 (and even that finish by Imavov was a bit hasty), we like this one to go the distance. Especially considering Cannonier has gone 4+ rounds in seven of his last nine fights.

Best Bet: Christian Leroy Duncan to Win via Decision