UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor II Tale of the Tape, Predictions, & Betting Odds

The UFC really put on a show with their UFC Freedom 250 event last month on the White House’s South Lawn. But that might seem like child’s play compared to the event they’re putting on at their home away from home at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on July 11 at UFC 329.

This event marks the return to the octagon of Conor McGregor for the first time in exactly five years plus a day. He has come close to returning a few times in the interim, but now, it’s finally happening. And the UFC could not have chosen a better foil for the polarizing Irishman.

Max Holloway steps in to welcome McGregor back to the UFC fold, but will be doing so at a higher weight than he has ever fought at, with McGregor’s, erm, workout regimen forcing this one to be fought at welterweight (170 pounds).

Will Holloway struggle with the jump up in weight, or will McGregor have trouble readapting to the octagon after a half-decade away? Read on for our full fight preview for the UFC 329 main event, including our tale of the tape, UFC betting predictions, and latest odds!

UFC 329: UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor II Main Event Bout - Tale of the Tape, Picks, & Odds - July 11

All odds provided by Powerplay.

Tale of the Tape:

Fight Analysis & Prediction

Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor Welterweight Main Card Bout Betting Odds

This one is more simple than you might think. Conor McGregor (22-6) hasn’t sniffed an octagon in five years, and even back then, he did not look like a world-beater. It’s been nearly a decade since he looked like a proper MMA fighter in his win against Eddie Alvarez to become a two-division champ.

Since then, he’s had controversies and arrests and failed boxing matches. We don’t think he has any motivation here other than to just get the UFC thing over with. It doesn’t seem like he was training very prodigiously, and we can’t imagine what kind of team he has around him. He’s also a hair’s breadth from 38 years old.

In his last two fights in 2021, McGregor was beaten soundly via stoppage twice by Dustin Poirier. Last year, Max Holloway (27-9) sent Poirier into retirement with a dominant performance during his BMF win. We’re not saying it was the same Poirier, but it’s worth noting.

We think this fight is going to go pretty much how those Poirier fights went for each fighter: McGregor is going to get tagged early and often and slowly recede from the fight while the gas tank-heavy Holloway grows and improves as the five-rounder goes on.

Our only reservation here is that Holloway has not generally fared well when he moves up in weight. But that’s not enough to balance out all the negatives we see with McGregor here. Holloway is still in win-now mode, while McGregor seems to just be here for a good time.

And we think not for a long time either. McGregor’s stamina makes a Holloway win via KO/TKO a decent shout, but with surprising -115 odds on that prop, we might as well just go with the straight moneyline bet on Holloway, even if it is sitting at -210.

However, by fight time, we would predict that Holloway’s line will have gone below -200 with tons of non-MMA-knowers betting on McGregor to make a splash in his return. You might be best served waiting to bet Holloway’s moneyline here until the last minute.

Best Bet: Max Holloway (-210)