UFC Fight Night 278: Muhammad vs. Bonfim Main Event Betting Predictions & Odds

In the third straight Fight Night card in as many weekends and the final UFC event before Donald Trump’s big party on the South Lawn of the White House next week, we get exactly the kind of card you’d expect: top heavy. Most of these fights and fighters will not be remembered, but late in the main card things do get interesting.

In the main event, No. 5 welterweight contender and former champ Belal Muhammad looks to get back on his horse and end a two-fight losing streak against No. 11 Gabriel Bonfim, who’s on a rise up the welterweight rankings after winning his last four straight bouts, two of which came via finish.

So will it be the grizzled former champion that gets himself back in title discussions as he approaches 40? Or is it the sub-30-year-old Brazilian who’s seemingly found his stride after suffering the first loss of his career just a few years ago in 2023? We’ve got you covered with the tale of the tape, UFC betting odds, predictions, and our best bet for the Muhammad-Bonfim main event scrap!

UFC Fight Night 278: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim Middleweight Main Event Picks & Odds - June 6

All odds provided by Powerplay.

Tale of the Tape:

Category	Belal Muhammad	Gabriel Bonfim
Height	5’10” (1.78 m)	6’1” (1.85 m)
Weight	170 lbs (77 kg)	170 lbs (77 kg)
Reach	72” (183 cm)	72” (183 cm)
Age	37	28
Nickname	Remember the Name	Marretinha
Fighting Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed/Minute	4.43	4.61
Strikes Absorbed/Minute	3.82	3.68
Takedown Average	2.14	3.6
Takedown Defense	90 %	76 %
Current Ranking	No. 5	No. 11
Fighting Out Of	Chicago, Illinois	Brasilia, Brazil

Fight Analysis & Prediction

No. 5 Belal Muhammad vs. No. 11 Gabriel Bonfim Ranked Welterweight Bout Betting Odds

Fighter	Moneyline	Spread	Rounds	Win by Decision	Win by KO/TKO/DQ	Win by Submission	Go the Distance
Belal Muhammad	-110	-5.5 (+220)	O4.5 (-125)	+190	+625	+750	-110
Gabriel Bonfim	-110	-5.5 (+220)	O4.5 (-125)	+390	+400	+450	-110

Belal Muhammad (24-5, 1 NC) was on top of the UFC world just a short while ago. But his reign as welterweight champion was a very short one, as he lost his first title defense someone as unexciting as Jack Della Maddalena. He then lost another decision to Ian Machado Garry to fall further out of the welterweight title picture.

In the other corner, Gabriel Bonfim (19-1) seems to be rounding into form after he had his welcome to the UFC moment in a TKO loss to Nicolas Dalby when the Brazilian had been 15-0. He’s won his last four though, and his last two have come against increasingly decent competition in Stephen Thompson and Randy Brown.

When Muhammad wins fights, it’s because he’s able to get a guy on the mat and keep him there for extended periods. That’s how he won the belt against Leon Edwards. But Bonfim would welcome the fight moving down to the mat: he actually averages more takedowns (3.6) than Muhammad (2.14). He’s better than the veteran at his own game.

Muhammad is definitely going to be fighting with some desperation here, as a loss would mean he never gets a chance to return to the mountaintop. But Muhammad’s best strategy is spamming takedowns, and Bonfim is just as likely to want to get the Palestinian to the mat as well considering his 13 career submission wins. Meanwhile, Bonfim also holds a slight edge when it comes to power. This is a true toss-up, so we’re going with the younger, hungrier fighter here.

Best Bet: Gabriel Bonfim Moneyline (-110)