2026 NFC South Over/Under Win Totals Futures Market: Breakdown & Value Picks - July 28
All odds provided by Betway.
2026 NFC South Over/Under Win Totals - Betting Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay moves to a new, post-Mike Evans era in 2026. They have Baker Mayfield, Emeka Egbuka, and Bucky Irving anchoring the offence, but that defence still might be an issue.
We expect them to go 3-3 in the division and to struggle against their opponents from the AFC and NFC North, likely winning another three there. After that, they have to deal with the Cowboys, Chargers, and Rams as their additional trio of games. They’d be lucky to win more than one of those. We’re taking these Buccaneers to fall under the .500 mark for the second straight year.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 8.5 Wins (-136)
New Orleans Saints
It seems NFL betting sites are very high on the Saints, and though we’re not quite as high as they are, we think Tyler Shough and company will build on their strong finish to the 2025 campaign when they won four of their final five games.
Road matchups against the Ravens and Lions to start the season are not ideal, but the rest of the year will be a lot easier for New Orleans, as they boast the second-easiest strength of schedule in the NFL. They should win three if not four of their next five games against the Raiders, Falcons, Vikings, Giants, and Steelers.
They should enter their bye at 4-3 or 3-4. We’ll go with 3-4 to be safe. They’ll get up and over .500 with wins over the Browns and Panthers at home coming out of that bye. Four of their next five games are on the road, however, and we’d only expect them to win one from that quintet. Home against the Cardinals and Bucs and away to the Falcons should mean a three-game winning streak to cap the campaign gets them to 9-8.
Best Bet: New Orleans Saints Over 7.5 Wins (-120)
Carolina Panthers
This is the team we think will win the division despite how low the oddsmakers seem to be on them. They added good talent on the defensive side, and we think Bryce Young takes another big step along with his coach Dave Canales this season.
They should start out 3-1 before their early Week 5 bye. Their four games after the week off are against the Eagles, Bucs, Packers, and Broncos. They can win two of those. Three of their four games after that are on the road, and we’d expect them to win just one from that block with away dates against the Vikings, Saints, and Bucs sandwiching a home game vs. Baltimore.
They’ll be happy to arrive at 6-6, as four of their final five games are at home in Charlotte. They take on the Saints, Bengals, Seahawks, and Falcons at home while visiting Pittsburgh in the middle. We think they will go 3-2 there at the very least, though it’s possible they win four of those final five. Either way, they’re winning more than they’re losing in 2026.
Best Bet: Carolina Panthers Over 8.5 Wins (+180)
Atlanta Falcons
This is our hot take of the season: Atlanta could finish the year with the worst record in the NFL. Tua Tagovailoa is past it, and Michael Penix Jr. never seems to have even had it. The rest of the roster isn’t nearly talented enough to make up for that lack under center. No offence to Bijan Robinson.
Five of their first seven games are against 2025 playoff teams, and the other two are on the road to New Orleans and at home to the Ravens. They’d be lucky to start 2-5. They may pick up one more win in Madrid against the Bengals before their bye, but that would still leave them at 3-7. They might get one more division win and one win away to the Browns after that, but we’re not even confident they can beat the Browns in Cleveland.
Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons Under 5.5 Wins (+180)
