We’ve split our spread picks in every week of these NFL playoffs, going one and one on Conference Championship weekend, but thankfully for us, there’s only one game this weekend, so no split is possible. Super Bowl 58 features a rematch between the participants of Super Bowl 54, with the Kansas City Chiefs once again taking on the San Francisco 49ers. Neither team has been overly dominant during the playoffs, so the spread is very tight for this Super Bowl. While the Chiefs were favored back in 2019, it’s the 49ers who come into this one as the moneyline favorites on all the top NFL betting sites and betting apps.
NFL Super Bowl 58 Spread & Totals Picks NFL Betting Odds
- Patrick Mahomes has been the best underdog in NFL history
- We learned our lesson betting against the Chiefs in the Divisional and Conference Championships
- While these teams both have potent offenses, the under is the play for Super Bowl 58
NFL Super Bowl 58 Betting Odds - February 11, 2024
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs - 6:30PM, Sunday, February 11th
|San Francisco 49ers
|Kansas City Chiefs
In the AFC Conference Championship game against the Baltimore Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs came out firing, scoring two touchdowns on their first two drives of the game. From then on, however, they managed just one field goal.
The San Francisco 49ers, on the other hand, had the opposite experience, as the Detroit Lions jumped all over them early, forcing them to fight back from a double-digit deficit for the second straight week. If both teams continue these trends in the Super Bowl, we could be in for a flying finish to Super Bowl 58.
When Kansas City’s offense is on the field, they’ll want to run the ball early and often with Isiah Pacheco, who’s been on quite a tear recently, with 730 yards and seven touchdowns over his last nine outings. The 49ers had one of the best run defenses in the league at the start of the campaign, but they’ve given up 137.5 yards per game on the ground over their past six, including 182 to the Lions.
If the Chiefs can run the ball successfully on early downs that will open up the offense for Patrick Mahomes. It will allow him to throw more short and intermediate routes, which he’s had success with all season. Those quick throws will also allow the Chiefs to thwart San Fran’s excellent pass rush.
On the other side, when Brock Purdy’s under center, it’s a lot of the same thing. The Chiefs have been one of the worst run defenses in recent weeks, allowing the Bills to run all over them for 182 yards in the Divisional playoffs. The Ravens went away from their bread and butter run game in the Conference Championship, and that’s why they’ll be watching this one from home.
The 49ers are set up to succeed on the ground with Christian McCaffrey, but the running game is most important because it will take some of the pressure off of Purdy’s second-year shoulders.
Another big matchup will be between Fred Warner and Kelce. Kelce is 34 now, and we haven’t seen him put up a full 60-minute performance in a while. However, he can go supernova in just 30 minutes, like he did against the Ravens. If Mahomes doesn’t have that Kelce outlet, it could be a long day for him. San Francisco was able to hold Kelce to just 43 yards in the 2019 Super Bowl matchup between these teams.
All in all, these two teams are very evenly matched. The main difference is at QB, where the Chiefs have the best in the game today and the 49ers have a guy who’s still developing into a top signal caller. Purdy is good against the blitz and under pressure, but he hasn’t seen what Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo is going to throw at him: the Chiefs have the seventh-highest blitz rate in the league at 32.7 percent and have been sending extra pressure even more often during the postseason.
Purdy’s poise will be put to the test, and we believe that while he’ll play well, he will make a crucial mistake or two that will turn out to be the difference on Sunday. We’ve bet against Mahomes and company twice this postseason—we won’t be doing it a third time. We’re taking the Chiefs to cover a +2.0 spread at -110 but we also like them to win straight up at +110 odds.
The Chiefs are looking to become the first back-to-back #SuperBowl champions since 2005.— Betting Top 10 - Canada (@Bettingtop10C) February 9, 2024
If they win, they'd be just the eighth #NFL team to pull off the feat.
Can they do it? Or will the 49ers win their first championship since 1995?
Bet on the game: https://t.co/dQQOcw5n9U pic.twitter.com/A8mA2gxR4z
Over/Under Betting Picks
Picking a winner for a Super Bowl with a two-point spread is pretty tough, but the over/under prop for this game is a lot easier to pin down. The number is set at 47.5, which is the second-lowest since 2011.
The under has hit in four of the last five Super Bowls, including in 2019 when these same two teams met in the Big Game. It’s also worth noting that there were only two teams in the NFL this season that hit fewer overs than the Chiefs, who went over the total in just six of their 20 games.
When the 49ers played teams outside of their division this season, the under was 7-6, and when the Chiefs played non-AFC West foes, the under was 9-5. 10 of Kansas City’s 12 games with a total of 45+ have gone under. The under has also hit in 10 of the last 13 Super Bowls that featured a male-led halftime show.
Both of these teams employ good passing defenses, which means this game could be slowed right down as both teams methodically move the ball down the field on the ground. We’re taking the under on this one’s 47.5 total at -110 with a lot more confidence than our spread pick.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including stops writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of the lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.