NFL Week 1: Player Prop Best Bets and Betting Odds
All betting odds provided by Betway.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions - Over 84.5 Rush Yards (-110) vs. New Orleans Saints
We are very high on the Detroit Lions this year, but specifically on Jahmyr Gibbs. He’s been a sight to see ever since he entered the league in 2023. And now, with his pal and backfield mate David Montgomery (finally) gone to the Houston Texans, he can be unleashed to show his true potential.
Now, you could’ve said that new signing Isiah Pacheco would simply take on Montgomery’s role. But I don’t think so. He was signed for just $1.81 million this offseason. Not exactly in the same ballpark as the $9+ million a year extension Montgomery signed with Detroit in 2024. And to make it an even more moot point, Pacheco is on IR right now.
Sione Vaki (seven career attempts) and Jacob Saylors (two career attempts) will be used sparingly as Gibbs gets off to a monster start to this season at home against a poor Saints team that had a middling run defence last year.
The Lions should have a very positive game script in this one, which means a lot of opportunity for Gibbs to get looks on the ground. This could be the start of a OPOY campaign.
Omarion Hampton, RB, Los Angeles Chargers - Over 64.5 Rush Yards (-110) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Though we’re higher on Gibbs than anyone this year, Omarion Hampton is a close second. Injuries really curbed his ability to breakout as a rookie last year, but all systems are a go heading into 2026. Let’s not forget, this guy was the 22nd overall pick in 2025.
The only other running backs on the roster are new arrival Keaton Mitchell and returning veteran Kimani Vidal. Neither is the type of back that is going to take Hampton’s job, and we don’t think either will eat into his workload much either.
Mitchell has been limited all week with a hamstring injury that could very well keep him out Week 1 anyway. Vidal was decent subbing in for Hampton last year, but never showed the type of talent that made him deserving of much playing time when Hampton is healthy. If it’s just Hampton and Vidal, it won’t be a committee.
The other reason we love Hampton this year is because of new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel. He ran a high-flying offence in Miami, but it was also one of the best on the ground too. His system is very RB-friendly, as evidenced by the elite seasons put up by Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane for the Dolphins over the last few years.
Add in the fact that L.A. is hosting what should be the worst team in the NFL (who also had a bottom 10 run defence last year), the Arizona Cardinals, in Week 1, and you’ve got a recipe for major success for Hampton here.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers - Over 45.5 Rush Yards (-110) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Unlike those first two guys, Rico Dowdle is playing in a clear committee with Jaylen Warren for the Pittsburgh Steelers. And Warren is likely to get the nominal start against the Falcons on Sunday. But that doesn’t mean he’ll get the lion’s share of carries.
We expect Warren to be used a lot in the passing game while Dowdle dominates most of the early-down rushing work. Warren will of course get his carries, but I could see something like a 60-40 percent split on totes between the two in Dowdle’s favor.
He has a history from his time with Mike McCarthy in Dallas, which should serve him in good stead early in the season. It gives him a chance to prove he deserves reps alongside the hard-working Warren. Not to mention that the Falcons will struggle to keep up even with this mediocre Steelers offence with Tua Tagovailoa forced into a starting role. Atlanta also gave up the ninth-most rushing yards last season.
