We’ve been on fire recently, hitting 11 of our last 12 player prop bets over the last three weeks. If only Tommy Tremble could have gotten on the board to give us a perfectly dirty dozen. We’ll look to nail another perfect player prop card in Week 18, as we navigate all of the conflicting objectives around the league and the best NFL betting odds on the final day of the regular season.
2024 NFL Player Prop Record: 44-24 (+14.85)
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
We have bet on running backs who are up against the Panthers’ defense almost every week over the last couple of months, and they nearly never disappoint. They have allowed an opposing running back to go for 110+ yards in five straight games after Bucky Irving’s big 113-yard day last week, on which we, of course, bet the over.
Carolina has allowed 143.6 rushing yards per game to running backs this season, nearly 30 yards more than the next worst unit. It’s truly been a sight to see. And just our luck, they get a team that has everything to play for in Week 18. That means we can bet on Atlanta’s RB1 with confidence.
And that’s Bijan Robinson, no question. Tyler Allgeier has seen 26 carries over the last three weeks, while Bijan has taken on 61. He’s the main man, and he’s going to continue to get all the work he can handle with rookie Michael Penix Jr. in there at QB.
Bijan has also been on a roll recently, topping 90 yards rushing in five straight, including two 100+ yarders. Allgeier will still get his looks, but Robinson should have no problem slicing his way through this swiss cheese defense to make it six straight 100+ yard rushers against the Panthers.
We believe Packers head coach Matt LaFleur when he says that he’s going to play his full roster with the intention of winning this football game. We’re not sure why they would slack off anyway: the Commanders have the same record, and if Green Bay wins and Washington loses on Sunday, the Packers would play the Bucs or Rams instead of the Eagles. A pretty big difference from our perspective, but what do we know?
So Josh Jacobs is going to get his fair share of carries, especially early on. Jacobs probably won’t play much late if the game isn’t close, but he could certainly rack up 65 yards by half against a Bears defense allowing 116.3 rushing yards per game to RBs, 3rd-most in football.
In recent weeks, Jahmyr Gibbs and Aaron Jones have both hit the over on their rushing props against Chicago—twice. As have Isaac Guerendo, David Montgomery, and our very own Jacobs, who took 18 for 76 last time these teams met. If you want to play it safe, take Jacobs’ backup, Chris Brooks, to hit his number too when Canadian betting sites put it on the board.
We’re so confident that these Philly running backs will chew up this Giants run defense and spit them out that we’re ready to commit without even knowing the numbers for Kenneth Gainwell and rookie Will Shipley.
If Shipley clears concussion protocol and suits up, we like him to get at least 50 yards, if not more. Gainwell, we would take up to a number in the same neighborhood, though maybe slightly lower, around 45. Gainwell has always been a more pass-centric back, and the Eagles will want to see what a youngster like Shipley can do in a meaningless game rather than feeding a veteran backup like Gainwell.
Not to mention the Giants can’t stop the run, and they don’t seem to want to. They won a wild one last week, but they still gave up 125 yards to Jonathan Taylor on the ground, and that was essentially in three quarters of work for the Indy RB. They allow up 115.3 rush yards per game to RBs, 4th-highest in the NFL, and they have every reason to want to lose this game.
Last but not least is Stone Smartt, a guy who we’ve rolled with before with success. He saw a little bit less work with Will Dissly returning to the lineup last week, but he still caught both his targets for 23 yards, which would do us just fine here. The Raiders are giving up 6.1 receptions per game to TEs, 3rd-most in football, and Smartt has been on a bit of a roll too.
Smartt has 2+ receptions and 20+ yards in four straight, and he should be able to continue that run against a Raiders defense that has allowed five TEs to snag 3+ receptions in the last five games. Last week, they allowed Juwan Johnson to go for 6 and 66 while Foster Moreau also went for 3 and 47.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
