2026 NFL Regular Season Passing Touchdowns Leader Futures Market: Breakdown & Value Picks - August 10
All odds provided by Betway.
2026 NFL Regular Season Passing Touchdowns Leader - Betting Odds
| Player | Betting Odds | 2025 Passing TDs (NFL Rank) |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | +450 | 17 (24th) |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | +650 | 46 (1st) |
| Jared Goff (DET) | +750 | 34 (2nd) |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | +900 | 20 (20th) |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | +1,000 | 30 (4th) |
| Drake Maye (NE) | +1,400 | 31 (3rd) |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | +1,800 | 26 (T-7th) |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | +1,800 | 22 (17th) |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | +1,800 | 29 (5th) |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | +2,200 | 25 (T-9th) |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | +2,200 | 27 (6th) |
| Jordan Love (GB) | +2,200 | 23 (T-14th) |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +2,200 | 25 (T-9th) |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | +2,200 | 26 (T-7th) |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | +2,200 | 21 (18th) |
The Favourites
Despite Joe Burrow (+450) missing half the year in 2025 and finishing with just 17 TDs, he’s the favourite here. He’s still got Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins so he’s always going to be a threat to pay out on this future. But the odds just aren’t offering enough value. For a future like this, you want at least +500 odds.
Especially if you’re going to be putting it on a guy who is as injury prone as Burrow has been: so far in his six-year career, he’s been just as likely to play a full slate of 16+ games as he has been to play 10 or fewer. Burrow is a surprisingly big favourite here over the rest of the field, and while we think he could be in the mix, he’s not our favourite name on the board. Not to mention those odds.
Our Best Bet: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (+1,000)
This is the same pick we made to lead the league in passing yards, but we just can’t ignore the value. He’s in a much better situation than Brock Purdy (+900) and he’s more durable than Joe Burrow (+450) or Matt Stafford (+650).
He’s got Ceedee Lamb and George Pickens to throw to, and he’s consistently thrown for around 4,500 when he plays a full season. When you’re paying a guy $60 million a year, you let him sling it in the red zone: he was third in red zone pass attempts last year. He was also second in that category in 2023 as well. If Prescott wasn’t on the board, we’d probably go with Jared Goff (+750) as our next best option.
Long Shot Dark Horse Candidate: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (+1,800)
Patrick Mahomes has led the league in passing TDs twice, in 2018 and 2022. That puts him on track to do it again in 2026. But all kidding aside, we like Mahomes’ value here. Despite missing the last three games of the season, he was second in red zone passing attempts last year.
He has said he’s going to run less, and while that could mean more RB running plays, it should definitely not reduce his red zone passing opportunities. And before you say red zone passing attempts are a useless stat, consider that five of the last six QBs to lead the league in passing TDs also led the league in red zone passing attempts that year.
