NFL Week 3: Player Prop Best Bets and Betting Odds
All betting odds provided by Betway.
David Montgomery, RB, Houston Texans - Over 49.5 Rush Yards (-110) @ Indianapolis Colts
In his Texans debut, David Montgomery saw a ton of the ball, toting it 20 times for 60 yards and finding pay dirt three times in the loss. But in Week 2, he crashed back down to earth with just 10 yards on six carries as Houston got their butts kicked on offence. Though to be fair to Monty, the entire Texans offence was shut down that day.
In Week 3, he gets a juicy matchup with the division-rival Colts, who have given up the second most rushing yards overall (354), the second-most to running backs (294), and the second-most yards per carry on the ground (5.4) through Week 2 of this campaign.
They’ve already given up two 100-yard rushers. They were Derrick Henry and Kenneth Walker III, so while we don’t expect Montgomery to match what those much more talented players did, we do expect a nice bounce back game for him here after that ugly display against Cincy last week.
Emmett Johnson, RB, Kansas City Chiefs - Over 42.5 Rush & Receiving Yards (-110) @ Miami Dolphins
We almost took Kenneth Walker III, but we figured with the Chiefs likely to go up big on the hapless Dolphins, we could see a lot of his rookie backup, Emmett Johnson, again. Walker has been one of the best stories of the season so far, but Johnson has been featured more than most thought he would be, and he’s looked like a solid contributor.
In the Week 1 blowout win over the Broncos, Johnson played 36 percent of the snaps and had eight carries for 24 yards and two catches for 44 yards. Last week he was down to around 20 percent of the snaps in a close game with Indy, but he still had four touches for 35 yards.
If this is a tight game deep into the second half, we’d be shocked if he didn’t blow by this 42.5 number for scrimmage yards. We like Johnson to get a lot of run, much like he did against Denver. Another point to mention is that it remains extremely humid down in Florida right now, which could mean Walker needs to get spelled a little more than usual.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers - Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers offence is the last thing anyone should be betting on right now. But we think we found some value here. The Bengals defence looked great last week against Houston, but the one thing they failed to do was stop the tight end, Dalton Schultz, who caught 12 passes for 140 yards.
Pat Freiermuth isn’t going to see that many targets, but there’s clearly a weakness in Cincy’s pass defence that can be exploited. And Freiermuth is one of the few guys that’s never pissed Aaron Rodgers off. Freiermuth has seen five targets in both games, turning them into 46 and 32 yards in Weeks 1 and 2. He’s still an important, if quiet, part of this offence.
And he loves playing the Bengals: his 61.9 yards per game in 10 career matchups with the Bengals are his highest against any team. He has gone for 65+ yards in six of his last eight contests with Cincinnati, including his only two career 100-yard games, one of which came last year with Rodgers as his QB.
With D.K. Metcalf struggling, Rodgers could turn more to Freiermuth. And if the Bengals get up on the Steelers early, there could be a lot of opportunity for garbage time stats here.
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