NFL Week 7 Late Sunday 4PM Betting Odds & Best Bets
All betting odds provided by Betway.
Denver Broncos (4-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-4) - 4:05PM
With first-round rookie Jeremiyah Love ruled out again, it’s going to be Tyler Allgeier and Bam Knight taking care of the backfield touches for the Cardinals again. And they’ve got an interesting matchup with the Broncos at home here. Denver is the better team, hence the 4.5-point spread. But they have struggled against the run this season.
They have given up 110+ yards on the ground in five of six games this year. The 139.8 rush yards per game the Broncos have allowed so far are the second-most in football, and the 107.8 they’re allowing to RBs specifically is third-most in the NFL.
Knight had the better game last week, and the head coach said that Allgeier is always going to be a “complementary” player, so one would think Knight would be the pick this week. But his number is up in the 40s while Allgeier’s is way down to 30.5. That’s way too low.
Allgeier had 18 carries last week. He only went for 38 yards, but that still would have covered this number. He might not get 18 again this week, but he’ll get at least 8-10. And he’s had 38, 42, and 61 yards in the three games this year where he gets 8+ looks. We don’t see the Broncos running away with this one in the desert either, so the game script will allow a plodder like Allgeier to get his opportunities.
Best Bet: Tyler Allgeier Over 30.5 Rush Yards (-110)
Los Angeles Rams (2-4) @ Las Vegas Raiders (3-3) - 4:25PM
We bet on this prop for old man Matty Stafford last week and got burned. But that’s because it was up at 2.5. Now, it’s back to a much more reasonable 1.5, and down there, this prop is almost always gravy.
The Raiders have allowed 13 passing TDs in six games this season. But it’s actually worse than that. They allowed just one touchdown through the air in the first two weeks. In the four weeks since, they’ve given up 12: four to Tyler Shough, two to Patrick Mahomes, four to Drake Maye, and two more to Josh Allen last week. Stafford should be right there too.
Stafford may not have hit the over on the 2.5 TD prop last week, but he’s hit over 1.5 TDs in four of the last five games, including a couple where he threw three and four TD passes. Las Vegas is giving up over 21 first downs per game, sixth-most in the league. Stafford and company will move the ball, no matter who’s catching passes for him.
Best Bet: Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 TD Passes (-130)
Green Bay Packers (4-2) @ Detroit Lions (3-2) - 4:25PM
A major NFC North clash is not usually saved for the late window on Sunday, so this is a real treat for us. We are leaning heavily toward Green Bay here, but with divisional games, you never really know. It’s best to avoid betting on the result when evenly matched divisional rivals meet up. Anything can happen.
So instead, we’re betting on something that we think will happen no matter who wins: Green Bay having a day on offence. Detroit is giving up 29.6 points per game this year, third-most in football. They haven’t played a game where they have allowed fewer than 21 points this year, including three where they gave up 30+ points.
Green Bay’s offence has been rounding into form in recent weeks as well, putting up 31 and 23 points in their last two wins. The Lions give up over 404 yards (most in the NFL) and 26.6 first downs (most) per game, and Jordan Love is going to enjoy playing against this unit. Brian Branch’s return won’t be enough to fix all that ails Detroit’s defence.
Best Bet: Green Bay Packers Over 24.5 Team Points (-110)
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