NFL Wild Card Weekend Sunday Betting Picks & Odds - January 11
All odds provided by Bodog.
No. 6 Buffalo Bills (12-5) @ No. 3 Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) - 1PM (CBS)
The Bills were favored to win this one earlier in the week, but the closer we get to game time, the further it has scooted over to Jacksonville’s side. We like Josh Allen to pull this one out, but not enough to bet on it (though we do like it more now that they are dogs), so we’re going to buy a couple of points off the 51.5-point total we’re getting from most betting sites and take the over.
Over the past five weeks, these teams have both hit four of five overs, and they are both top five in scoring offense. Jacksonville is averaging 36.4 and Buffalo is going for 28.8. Two quality QBs, beautiful weather forecast, and not an elite defense in sight. Six of the Jags’ last nine games have gone over 50 points, and we think Buffalo will oblige them in a shootout.
Best Bet: Alternative Game Total Points Over 49.5 (-160)
No. 6 San Francisco 49ers (12-5) @ No. 3 Philadelphia Eagles (11-6) - 4:30PM (FOX)
This matchup will be played outdoors and in the elements in Philadelphia. There isn’t supposed to be too much precipitation, but high wind gusts are expected, which could hamstring the passing offenses of both teams. That would lead to more running plays and short passing plays, which is good for the featured backs in this game.
Saquon Barkley has been unreliable this season, however, so we’re looking at First-Team All-Pro Christian McCaffrey here. CMC averaged 125 yards from scrimmage per game this season, including 100+ in 12 of 17 games and 110+ in 11 of those.
The Eagles have a solid defense, but CMC’s volume is just too high. And it gets even higher in the playoffs. During the 2023 postseason, CMC averaged 150 yards from scrimmage, and he has hit 100+ scrimmage yards in six of seven career playoff games, including one against the Eagles back in the 2022 postseason.
Best Bet: Christian McCaffrey to Record 110+ Scrimmage Yards (-110)
No. 7 Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) @ No. 2 New England Patriots (14-3) - 8PM (NBC)
We just can’t wrap our heads around who is going to win this one. The Patriots are at home and have more wins, but the Chargers have more wins against quality competition. And that defense is something else. The one thing we are sure of—and we discussed this when we were making our player prop best bets for Wild Card weekend a few days ago—is that the Patriots’ run defense can be beat.
They have given up 160+ rush yards in three of their last four, and they’ve allowed 140+ on the ground to the Jets on two occasions this season. This should be a cagey game, and we expect the Chargers to try to establish the run. Now, a few days ago we said to take Omarion Hampton’s over, but we didn’t know how healthy he would be and what his prop number would be.
His prop is at a very reasonable 44.5 yards, and that number is significant, because he has hit 44+ in seven of his nine games this season. He did miss two practice sessions this week and was limited in the last one, but he has had two weeks to let the ankle heal. He also sat out Week 18 along with most of L.A.’s other starters. Hampton has looked solid since returning from IR, and we think he will continue that trend in Foxborough.
Best Bet: Omarion Hampton Over 44.5 Rush Yards (-110)
