Noche UFC 4: Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales Tale of the Tape, Predictions, & Betting Odds

Alex Murray
By: Alex Murray
UFC Picks
Noche UFC 4: Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales Tale of the Tape, Predictions, & Betting Odds

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The UFC is putting on its fourth annual Noche UFC event to celebrate Mexico’s Independence Day (September 16) this weekend, with the main card getting going a little earlier than usual at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 12.

While there are no Mexican fights in the main event, the co-main will feature No. 10 flyweight and former division champ Brandon Moreno, arguably Mexico’s biggest MMA star. He will look to bounce back from two straight defeats as he takes on journeyman Joseph Morales. Read on for the tale of the tape for this matchup as well as the latest betting odds, analysis, and predictions!

Highlights

  • The main card will start a bit earlier than usual in Glendale at 5 p.m. ET
  • This fight is being billed as a pick ‘em by most UFC sportsbooks
  • Joseph Morales is back for a second try with the UFC after his first stint ended early

Noche UFC 4: No. 6 Jean Silva vs. No. 15 Jose Delgado Featherweight Main Event Bout - September 12 - 5 P.M. EDT

All odds provided by Powerplay.

Tale of the Tape:

CategoryBrandon MorenoJoseph Morales
Height5’7” (1.70 m)5’6” (1.68 m)
Weight125 lbs (66 kg)125 lbs (57 kg)
Reach70” (178 cm)68.0” (173 cm)
Age3232
NicknameThe Assassin BabyN/A
Fighting StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
Significant Strikes Landed/Minute3.842.00
Strikes Absorbed/Minute3.642.05
Takedown Average1.361.14
Takedown Defense65 %27 %
Current RankingNo. 10N/A
Fighting Out OfTijuana, Baja California, MexicoSacramento, United States

Fight Analysis & Prediction

No. 10 Brandon Moreno vs. Joseph Morales Flyweight Co-Main Event Betting Odds

FighterMoneylineSpreadRoundsWin by DecisionWin by KO/TKO/DQWin by SubmissionGo the Distance
Brandon Moreno+100+3.5 (-235)O2.5 (-370)+160+850+1,200Yes (-290)
Joseph Morales-120-3.5 (+180)U2.5 (+270)+140+1,200+700No (+210)

Brandon Moreno (23-10-2) was once the name in the UFC’s flyweight division. But the former champ losing pretty badly in back-to-back fights recently has taken some of the sheen off his name. He was TKO’d by Tatsuro Taira last December and got dominated by Lone’er Kavanagh as a massive favourite at UFC Mexico City this past February.

However, that last fight was a tough one. He was a Mexican headlining a card in Mexico, his opponent was a last-minute addition, and he’d fought just two months earlier. This time, he’s had seven months to prepare, and while this is Noche UFC, it’s being held in Arizona, where he won’t be headlining, but instead sitting comfortably in co-main event of the evening.

Joseph Morales (14-2) is looking to make his second stint in the UFC count. He was chased from the promotion in 2018 after a 1-2 run. He came back in 2025 to win The Ultimate Fighter as a massive underdog and then submit Matt Schnell a few months later in November.

He certainly looked better during his TUF run than he did during his first stay with the UFC nearly a decade ago. But he hasn’t fought anyone near Moreno’s caliber during his return to relevance here. This might be too big a jump for him, especially considering oddsmakers have him as the slight favourite.

Morales also hasn’t fought in nearly a year, which could result in a little bit of rust for a guy that fought a handful of times during his TUF run in 2025.

Moreno is desperate for a win to get back in the mix at flyweight; he remains just 32 years old. We think he’s going to eke out a victory against a fighter in Morales that we think will eventually fight his way onto the top 15 flyweight rankings. Just not against The Assassin Baby.

Best Bet: Brandon Moreno Moneyline (+100)

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Alex Murray has been a consistent presence on BettingTop10 since he joined the team in 2020 just after graduating from Ryerson University’s Sport Media program in 2019. He has written for publications including theScore, Sporting News, FanSided, FantasyPros, and more over his 6+ years in the field. Alex has also been a lifelong athlete and sports fan who has channeled that love into his entertaining writing style and shrewd betting strategies.