Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Penn State vs Northwestern Odds
Penn State is a slim -150 moneyline favorite at football betting sportsbooks, with Northwestern sitting at +112. The Nittany Lions are laying 2.5 points on the road, while the O/U is set at 45.5.
Penn State has historically dominated this matchup, winning 16 of 22 meetings. However, Northwestern turned the tables last season, upsetting the Nittany Lions 22-21 as a massive 20.5-point underdog.
Penn State vs Northwestern Analysis
Penn State entered the campaign with high expectations under new head coach Matt Campbell, and the Nittany Lions cruised through their first three games. They beat Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo by a combined 105 points, allowing just 22 in the process. However, their first real test of the season ended in disappointment, with Wisconsin pulling off a 24-20 upset in Happy Valley last weekend.
The Nittany Lions led by 10 points at halftime but couldn't close the door, getting outscored 21-7 in the second half. Quarterback Rocco Becht struggled to get the passing game going, completing just 12 passes for 114 yards. He did find the end zone with his legs, but Penn State lacked explosiveness offensively and managed just one completion of 20-plus yards.
Friday represents an opportunity for Campbell's group to respond, but Northwestern shouldn't be taken lightly. The Wildcats are 2-1 and have covered the spread in all three games this season. They opened the campaign with a 34-18 win over South Dakota State before destroying Deion Sanders’ Colorado 41-7. Their first defeat came last Friday against Indiana, but there were plenty of positives to take away from that performance.
Northwestern trailed the defending national champions 12-0 at halftime before making things interesting, outscoring the Hoosiers 23-17 across the final two quarters. Aidan Chiles was fantastic under center, completing 22 of 29 passes for 293 yards while accounting for three touchdowns. He was especially impressive after the break, throwing for 237 yards and two scores while also rushing for another touchdown.
The Wildcats ultimately came up short, but going toe-to-toe with one of the best teams in the country should give them plenty of confidence. Now, they return home for the first-ever game at the newly rebuilt Ryan Field, which should make for an electric atmosphere on Friday night.
Penn State vs Northwestern Picks
Penn State are the more talented team on paper, but laying points with the Nittany Lions on the road isn't overly appealing after what we saw against Wisconsin. Northwestern has looked solid through three games and proved against Indiana that it can compete with elite competition.
The Wildcats have also covered in every game this season and beat Penn State outright a year ago. With Chiles playing some excellent football at quarterback and Northwestern getting the benefit of a home crowd, I'll gladly take the 2.5 points.
Pick: Northwestern +2.5 (-110)/TonyBet
