Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Texas vs Florida Odds
Football betting sites have priced Texas as a sizable 11.5-point home favorite for Saturday's SEC clash, while Florida return at +330 on the moneyline. The O/U is set at 52.5 points.
These two programs have split their last two meetings. Texas cruised to a 49-17 victory in 2024, but Florida got their revenge last season, beating the Longhorns 29-21 in Gainesville.
Texas vs Florida Analysis
Texas entered the campaign with massive expectations, but Steve Sarkisian's group has struggled to find their best despite winning four of their opening five games. The Longhorns were ranked No. 1 heading into last weekend's Red River Rivalry, only to suffer a heartbreaking 27-24 defeat to Oklahoma. It was a disappointing result for a team with national championship aspirations and exposed several concerning weaknesses.
Arch Manning threw for 260 yards and three touchdowns against the Sooners, but he also tossed two costly interceptions in the fourth quarter. One was returned for a touchdown, while the other helped Oklahoma set up the game-winning field goal. Manning was also sacked six times, and the Longhorns struggled to find offensive consistency. Texas is averaging just 31.4 points per game, which isn't exactly what many expected from this talented group.
However, the Longhorns have been much better defensively, allowing just 16 points per contest. They've also won all three games on home soil, and returning to Austin should provide a much-needed boost. Texas have covered the spread just once in five outings, though, which makes laying nearly two touchdowns against an SEC opponent a difficult proposition.
Florida, meanwhile, have endured a frustrating couple of weeks after beginning the season with four consecutive victories. The Gators were dismantled 45-17 by Missouri before suffering another lopsided defeat to South Carolina on Saturday, losing 38-19. Jon Sumrall's group has now allowed 83 points in its last two games, and the defense must improve significantly if it's going to compete in Austin.
Despite the recent struggles, Florida has shown plenty of offensive promise. The Gators are averaging 473.8 total yards per game, including more than 200 on the ground. Running back Jadan Baugh has been particularly impressive, scoring 12 rushing touchdowns through six appearances. He found the end zone again against South Carolina, although he managed just 59 yards on 15 carries.
Quarterback Aaron Philo also completed 21 of 28 passes for 227 yards and a touchdown against the Gamecocks, while Bailey Stockton caught eight passes for 127 yards and a score. Florida has the weapons to move the football, but they'll need to avoid turnovers and capitalize on their opportunities against a talented Texas defense.
Texas vs Florida Picks
Both teams are looking to bounce back, and Texas certainly has the talent to take care of business at home. However, the Longhorns haven't been overly convincing offensively, and their inability to cover spreads is concerning.
Florida have struggled defensively, but they're still averaging nearly 30 points per game against SEC opponents. The Gators also beat Texas last season, and their offensive firepower should give them a chance to remain competitive. I'll take the visitors to keep this within two touchdowns.
Pick: Florida +11.5 (-115)/TonyBet
