UFC White House: Topuria vs. Gaethje Championship Main Event Betting Predictions & Odds

We did have to sit through a month of subpar Fight Nights to get here, but we’ve finally arrived: UFC Freedom 250–or UFC White House as many are calling it unofficially–is going down this Sunday. And it’s going to be a unique affair, as any UFC pay-per-view taking place on the White House’s South Lawn would have to be.

There are no early prelim or prelim cards for this one. Just a fat seven-fight main card that has six ranked bouts including two championship matchups.

In the final fight of the night, lightweight champion Ilia Topuria will look to remain undefeated against interim champ Justin Gaethje. We’ve got you covered with the tale of the tape, fight analysis, predictions, and UFC betting odds for the main event of the evening.

UFC White House: Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje Championship Lightweight Main Event Tale of the Tape, Picks, & Odds - June 14

All odds provided by Powerplay.

Tale of the Tape:

Fight Analysis & Prediction

(C) Ilia Topuria vs. (IC) Justin Gaethje Lightweight Championship Main Event Betting Odds

Ilia Topuria (17-0) is one of the scariest fighters in the sport. Perhaps ever. He raked the featherweight division through the coals, knocking out Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski, who are probably the two best fighters in the history of that division, with one punch each.

Then he moved up to lightweight and did the same thing to Charles Oliveira, one of the greatest the UFC has ever seen at 155. Now, he’ll look to unify his lightweight crown against interim champ Justin Gaethje (27-5), who earned the distinction by dominating Paddy Pimblett in January.

Despite being 37, Gaethje can clearly still scrap. But Topuria is a completely different beast to Pimblett. El Matador’s power seems like it should be reserved for the heavyweight division, and he’s throwing those cinderblocks with intention at 155 pounds.

If Gaethje really wanted, he could make this an ugly one and just start spamming takedowns. Topuria may have a 94 percent takedown defense, but up at 5’7”, he is decidedly undersized for a lightweight, and Gaethje is a former All-American wrestler.

However, considering the stage and the short-sighted orange man he’ll be fighting in front of, we can’t imagine Gaethje doing that for the entire fight. The MAGA supporters in attendance will want a brawl (as will we all) and Gaethje loves to give the people what they want.

Having said that, we think Gaethje can last in there for more than 7.5 minutes. He’s only been finished in the first round once, by Oliveira, and we think he will at least be cautious enough not to go directly into El Matador’s red cape like a mad bull. We think Topuria eventually gets the stoppage, but with his KO odds at -225, there’s not much value there.

Instead, we like Gaethje to force Topuria to work a little bit and go deeper into this main event championship fight than he’d like to. Gaethje takes a lot of damage though, so he’ll have to be careful and try to mix in some takedowns early to keep Topuria on his toes.

Best Bet: Total Rounds Over 1.5 (-105)