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UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira II BMF Main Event Betting Predictions & Odds

Alex Murray
By: Alex Murray
UFC Picks
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The UFC has many divisions and therefore many belts. And they’re all official. But there’s really only one unofficial title in the biggest MMA promotion in the world right now: the BMF belt. Named for the “Baddest Mother F****r” in the fight game at the moment, there has only been one guy to actually defend that belt. And he’s fighting again in Las Vegas in the main event at UFC 326.

Max Holloway was always a great champion and fighter. But he’s become one of the biggest draws and most exciting fighters in the world recently too. Historically a featherweight, he’s beaten two elite lightweights in dominant fashion recently, first taking the BMF title, and then defending it.

At UFC 326, former lightweight champ and all-time UFC finish leader Charles Oliveira will look to end Holloway’s reign. We’ve got you covered with the top UFC betting odds, analysis, and predictions for this huge main event on the Strip on Saturday night.

Highlights

  • Max Holloway is the first fighter to win two fights for the BMF title
  • Holloway has not been submitted in over 14 years
  • Charles Oliveira has not won 2 straight fights since 2022

UFC 326: Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira II BMF Title Fight Picks & Odds - March 7

All odds provided by Betway.

Tale of the Tape:

CategoryMax HollowayCharles Oliveira
Height5’11” (1.80 m)5’10” (1.78 m)
Weight155 lbs (70 kg)155 lbs (70 kg)
Reach69” (175 cm)74” (188 cm)
Age3436
NicknameBlessedDo Bronxs
Fighting StanceOrthodoxOrthodox
Significant Strikes Landed/Minute7.203.35
Strikes Absorbed/Minute4.743.24
Takedown Average0.242.22
Takedown Defense83 %55 %
Current RankingNo. 4 (BMF Champion)No. 3
Fighting Out OfWaianae, Hawaii, USAGuaruja, Sao Paulo, Brazi

Fight Analysis & Prediction

(C) Max Holloway vs. No. 3 Charles Oliveira BMF Championships (Lightweight) Bout Betting Odds

FighterMoneylineSpreadRoundsWin by DecisionWin by KO/TKO/DQWin by SubmissionGo the Distance
Max Holloway-200-5.5 (-135)O3.5 (+100)+280+145+1,000Yes (+195)
Charles Oliveira+165+5.5 (+105)U3.5 (-130)+800+850+325No (-260)

The BMF belt might be one of the best additions to the UFC since it made the big time. All you get are wars. No one is scared and protecting a real belt. They’re fighting with everything to hold or win a symbolic belt. And because it’s symbolic, you can’t sit back. And Max Holloway (27-8) hasn’t.

He finished Justin Gaethje in one of the most insane sports moments of the 21st century to win the BMF belt, and after a humbling KO loss to Ilia Topuria, Max put out a dominant decision win over another lightweight legend in Dustin Poirier to retain the BMF belt.

Charles Oliveira (36-11, 1 NC) also bounced back after getting starched by Topuria. He managed an impressive submission win over Mateusz Gamrot in his last fight. But we don’t think he’ll be able to handle Holloway.

Oliveira takes a lot of hits, and Holloway loves to deal a lot of damage. Slowly but surely. He will wear Oliveira down. He is too quick and savvy to fall into an Oliveira submission trap. He will batter the Brazilian. Do Bronx has lost 11 times in the UFC. 9 of those have come before the bell. We know the move here.

Best Bet: Max Holloway to Win via KO/TKO/DQ

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Alex Murray has been a consistent presence on BettingTop10 since he joined the team in 2020 just after graduating from Ryerson University’s Sport Media program in 2019. He has written for publications including theScore, Sporting News, FanSided, FantasyPros, and more over his 6+ years in the field. Alex has also been a lifelong athlete and sports fan who has channeled that love into his entertaining writing style and shrewd betting strategies.

Alex Murray
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