UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura Main Card UFC Betting Preview

15 Mar 24
UFC
News - UFC
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura Main Card UFC Betting Preview

After a UFC 299 card full of fireworks, the UFC is slowing down with a few lesser Fight Night cards before they start ramping up for UFC 300 in mid-April. The first of these is UFC Fight Night 239, which will be headlined by a top 10 heavyweight battle between Marcin Tybura and Tai Tuivasa, who will be the only ranked fights taking to the octagon on March 16 at the UFC Apex in Paradise, Nevada. In an exceedingly rare occurrence, the main event featuring Tybura and Tuivasa is being offered as a straight up pick ‘em, with neither fighter earning moneyline favorite status according to most of the top UFC betting sites and betting apps.

Highlights

  • Tai Tuivasa will get the knockout win against Marcin Tybura
  • Bryan Battle will win the matchup of welterweight prospects on the judges cards
  • Bryan Battle will win the matchup of welterweight prospects on the judges cards

UFC Fight Night 239: Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura Main Card Betting Odds - March 16

Apart from the main event, which could end at any moment with No. 9 heavyweight Tai Tuivasa and No. 10 Marcin Tybura throwing haymakers, there are a couple of other fights worth watching. Bryan Battle and Ange Loosa will also put on a cracking display in the welterweight division, and Ovince Saint Preux and Kennedy Nzechukwu will look to create fireworks during a light heavyweight scrap. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

No. 9 Tai Tuivasa vs. No. 10 Marcin Tybura Main Event Heavyweight Bout Odds

FighterMoneylineWin by KO/TKO/DQWin by SubmissionWin by DecisionTotal Rounds
Tai Tuivasa-110+100+2,000+1,200O1.5 (-125)
Marcin Tybura-110+225+500+650U2.5 (-105)

In the fight that everybody came to see, No. 9 heavyweight contender Tai Tuivasa (14-6) takes on No. 10 contender Marcin Tybura (24-8) in a battle of top 10 big boys. Tuivasa is coming into this one on an ugly three-fight losing streak, losing each one by way of finish. Prior to that, he’d been on a five-KO win streak, turning out the lights in the first two rounds on all opponents. Clearly, it can go either way with this guy, it’s just not going to the final bell.

In the opposite corner, Tybura has won nine of his last 11 fights, though his most recent outing ended early when interim heavyweight champ Tom Aspinall put him out with elbows and punches barely a minute into their main event fight last July.

  • Tybura is the stronger grappler, but his 33 percent takedown success rate is not encouraging at all, and he hasn’t won a fight by submission since joining the UFC in 2016. He’s also got just two finishes in his last 15 fights.
  • Tuivasa, meanwhile, has earned 13 of his 14 victories by way of TKO/KO, and he’s knocked out way better strikers than Tybura before, most notably Derrick Lewis in his most recent win.
  • Tuivasa has the advantage on the feet when it comes to power, skill, and even quickness. The Aussie has also shown an ability to fold many massive opponents who didn’t have much in the way of lateral movement or technical boxing ability like Tybura.

If Tybur could do some damage on Bam Bam at a distance with his three-inch reach advantage, maybe he’d have a shot, but that’s not really in the Pole’s locker. As it stands, Tuivasa seems too tough on the feet. Bam Bam is also great at using his Muay Thai while in close, which is bad news for Tybura, who loves to work from the clinch.

Tuivasa has also shown a solid chin, and when you stand back and look at his three-fight losing streak, you see that those defeats came at the hands of three of the top six heavyweights right now. Tybura is no longer that caliber of fighter, if he ever was.

Tuivasa should be a bigger favorite here, so take his +100 odds to win by knockout instead of his -110 moneyline - the only decision win he’s ever had came against 59-fight veteran Andrei Arlovski and four of Tybura’s last five loss have come before the final bell.

Bryan Battle vs. Ange Loosa Co-Main Event Welterweight Bout Odds

FighterMoneylineWin by KO/TKO/DQWin by SubmissionWin by DecisionTotal Rounds
Bryan Battle-185+500+400+150O2.5 (-200)
Ange Loosa+150+700+1,400+275U2.5 (+150)

In the penultimate fight of the night, Bryan Battle (10-2) will look to stay hot against Ange Loosa (10-3), the latter of which just joined the UFC in 2022. Both 29, these guys are exciting young prospects, but Battle is definitely the pick of the two. He has somehow found a way to mix an unorthodox striking arsenal with elite technical ability, even if he lacks in terms of volume and takedown defense.

Loosa has been known to take opponents to the mat, but he’s not as strong a grappler as Rinat Fakhretdinov, the only man to beat Battle in the UFC. Loosa would rather stand and outpoint his opponents anyway, as he has shown very strong technical boxing ability paired with a high volume.

However, his striking defense is pretty poor, and that’s something that an opportunistic Battle can take advantage of. Loosa has shown an absolute chin in his three UFC bouts, so we like him to make it to the final bell, if a little battered and bruised when he gets there.

The sealing factor here is A.J. Fletcher: Battle dominated Fletcher in a second-round rear-naked choke win in his last fight in September, while Loosa struggled to a tight decision win against the same opponent a year earlier. Take Battle to win via decision in this one at +150 odds.

Ovince Saint Preux vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu Light Heavyweight Bout Odds

FighterMoneylineWin by KO/TKO/DQWin by SubmissionWin by DecisionTotal Rounds
Ovince Saint Preux+500+1,100+1,400+1,200O1.5 (+120)
Kennedy Nzechukwu-714-227+550+550U1.5 (-154)

In the third fight of the main card, we get two giants of the light heavyweight class in gatekeeper Ovince Saint Preux (26-17) and up-and-comer Kennedy Nzechukwu (12-4). We haven’t seen a moneyline this chalky in a while, if ever. There’s no point in betting the moneyline unless you have a crystal ball and in it you can see a shocking upset for the 40-year-old over the 31-year-old.

So, we look at how Nzechukwu will beat Saint Preux, who’s lost seven of his last 11 fights. African Savage is coming into this one off the back of a loss, but he’d won three straight by way of finish prior to that. OSP’s last three losses all came by KO/TKO, so the safest outcome bet would be Nzechukwu by that method at -227.

However, Nzechukwu has not finished any UFC opponent in the first round and Saint Preux has only been finished in the first round twice in 43 bouts, so the over on this one’s 1.5 rounds prop at +120 odds does not look too shabby either.

Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.