2026 NFL Passing Touchdowns Milestones Futures Markets: Breakdown & Value Picks - August 19
All odds provided by Betway.
2026 NFL Regular Season Passing Touchdowns Leader - Betting Odds
| Player | Odds To Throw 30+ TDs | Odds To Throw 35+ TDs | Odds To Throw 40+ TDs |
| Joe Burrow (CIN) | -210 | +135 | +375 |
| Matthew Stafford (LAR) | -135 | +180 | +475 |
| Jared Goff (DET) | -110 | +275 | +650 |
| Brock Purdy (SF) | +135 | +375 | +1,000 |
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | +145 | +400 | +1,000 |
| Drake Maye (NE) | +160 | +475 | +1,200 |
| Trevor Lawrence (JAX) | +220 | +550 | +1,600 |
| Justin Herbert (LAC) | +225 | +600 | +1,600 |
| Baker Mayfield (TB) | +230 | +650 | +1,600 |
| Lamar Jackson (BAL) | +280 | +700 | +2,000 |
| Josh Allen (BUF) | +300 | +750 | +2,000 |
| Patrick Mahomes (KC) | +300 | +750 | +2,000 |
| Bo Nix (DEN) | +320 | +750 | +2,000 |
| Jordan Love (GB) | +320 | +750 | +2,000 |
| Caleb Williams (CHI) | +325 | +750 | +2,000 |
| Sam Darnold (SEA) | +360 | +900 | +2,500 |
| Jalen Hurts (PHI) | +425 | +1,100 | +3,000 |
| C.J. Stroud (HOU) | +450 | +1,100 | +3,000 |
| Jayden Daniels (WAS) | +500 | +1,400 | +3,500 |
| Aaron Rodgers (PIT) | +600 | +1,600 | +4,000 |
Best Bet #1: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs - To Throw 30+ TDs (+300)
Believe it or not, it has been four years since Patrick Mahomes threw at least 30 TDs in a single season. Remember when he put up 50 back in the day? His last three campaigns have resulted in 27, 26, and 22 last year when he missed three games.
But even with that subpar recent track record, one would think that Mahomes’ star power would lead to shorter odds. Not so. He’s sitting at +300 to reach 30 TDs, and we absolutely love that value. He’s got the best receiving corps he’s had in a few years with Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Tyquan Thornton, and a Travis Kelce we expect to be rejuvenated in his victory lap season.
Best Bet #2: Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills - To Throw 30+ TDs (+300)
Similar to Mahomes, his nemesis Josh Allen has not hit 30+ TDs since 2022. But like Mahomes, we have reasons to believe he’s going to be more productive in 2026. From 2020-2022, Allen had 35+ TDs in every season. That’s when he had a bonafide WR1 in Stefon Diggs.
With the offseason trade for D.J. Moore, Allen once again has a go-to guy for the first time since 2022. Allen had 25 TDs last year and 28 and 29 the two years before. With Moore in the mix, that should put him over the top. And once again, Allen’s star power shockingly has not affected his odds, which sit at a delectable +300.
Long Shot Dart Throw: Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers - To Throw 30+ TDs (+600)
If you want a little more juice, Aaron Rodgers is very intriguing. You could bet him to throw 25 TDs at +200, but we think it’s worth the risk to jump up to 30+ TDs at +600. He had 24 last year in an abysmal offence and also missed a game. Under Mike McCarthy, the offence is going to be a lot better. They also added a proper WR2 in Michael Pittman to support D.K. Metcalf.
Rodgers has not thrown for 30+ TDs since 2021, but there have been extenuating circumstances. In 2022 he was having issues with Green Bay’s front office, he didn’t play in 2023, he played for the Jets in 2024, and last year Pittsburgh’s offence was brutal. McCarthy likes to throw the ball: in two full seasons under McCarthy, Dak Prescott tossed 36 and 37 TDs while Rodgers hit 30+ in 6 of 9 full seasons unaffected by injury under the Pittsburgh native.
Other props we like here include Prescott to throw for 35+ at +400, Caleb Williams to throw for 30+ at +325, and Joe Burrow to throw for 40+ at +375.
