2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Early Odds: Controversial Award Is Wide Open

Alex Murray
By: Alex Murray
Jul 13, 2025
NFL Picks
Photo by Wikimedia Commons, CC by 2.0

Photo by Wikimedia Commons, CC by 2.0

The NFL Comeback Player of the Year has surprisingly become a bit of a controversial award over the last couple of years. Joe Flacco won in questionable fashion in 2023 despite not receiving the most first-place votes. Last year, Joe Burrow won after missing just seven games the previous season and going up against guys like J.K. Dobbins and Sam Darnold that were coming back from much tougher circumstances.

But the Associated Press, which hands out the awards, attempted to clarify that, “the spirit of the award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.”

If that did nothing to clarify anything for you, you’re not alone. Sam Darnold was supposed to be removed from contention because he wasn’t coming back from injury (though  2022 and 2023 winners Geno Smith and Flacco were not injured the previous year), but he still finished third in the voting. It seems both injury and “other circumstances” are potential avenues to this award, so the field is wide open. Let’s take a look at the early NFL betting odds for next year’s NFL Comeback Player of the Year award!

Highlights

  • A quarterback has won this award for seven straight years
  • Dak Prescott has the shortest odds for a quarterback, at +300
  • A couple of veteran WRs coming off ACL injuries are intriguing long shots

2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year June Odds: Breakdown & Value Picks - July 13

All odds provided by Betway.

2025 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Betting Odds

PlayerJuly 7 Odds
Aidan Hutchinson, Edge (DET)+200
Christian McCaffrey, RB (SF)+300
Dak Prescott, QB (DAL)+300
Trevor Lawrence, QB (JAX)+450
J.J. McCarthy, QB (MIN)+750
Rashee Rice, WR (KC)+1,200
Maxx Crosby, Edge (LV)+2,000
Brandon Aiyuk, WR (SF)+2,500
Stefon Diggs, WR (NE)+2,500
Tua Tagovailoa, QB (MIA)+2,500
Chris Godwin, WR (TB)+3,000
Nick Chubb, RB (HOU)+3,000
Daniel Jones, QB (IND)+3,300
Anthony Richardson, QB (IND)+3,500
Deshaun Watson, QB (CLE)+3,500
Chris Olave, WR (NO)+5,000
Rashid Shaheed, WR (NO)+5,000

The Favorites

Aidan Hutchinson, Edge, Detroit Lions (+200): This is an interesting choice for the favorite here. And especially considering how short the odds are this early in the race. Aidan Hutchinson has immense potential in terms of sack numbers, and he missed 12 games with a broken leg last year, so he definitely fits the criteria.

However, only one defensive player has won this award since 2008, and that was Eric Berry, who returned from a cancer diagnosis to earn First-Team All-Pro honors in 2015. A pretty obvious pick and a really feel-good story. Hutchinson doesn’t quite have that. The other defensive players to win were: Greg Ellis (torn Achilles), Tedy Bruschi (stroke), and Joe Johnson and Bryant Young, who both had knee injuries so bad that most thought they would retire.

Hutchinson is a great player, but unless these other top favorites on the offensive side of the ball fall really hard, he’s gonna be hard-pressed to win this one without recording something like 20+ sacks. There’s more value elsewhere.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (+300): All things being equal, we would say that Christian McCaffrey is a shoo-in for this award in 2025 barring another injury. He missed all but four games last year, and with the makeup of San Fran’s new offense, he’s gonna see a lot of work. However, only one RB (Garrison Hearst, 2001) has won this award since it was reintroduced in 1998.

Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (+300): Instead, we would consider a QB for this award, and Dak Prescott has the inside track among that cohort. He missed more than half of last season, he fully recovered from his injury weeks ago, and Dallas added a big piece in WR George Pickens.

Last time he missed nearly a whole season, Prescott came back and finished second in CPOY voting. This time, we think he’s gonna run away with it. QBs have won this award in 18 of 28 years since its return. The +300 odds from betting apps aren’t offering the best value, but good enough for how good we feel about Prescott.

Long Shot Value Bets

  • Brandon Aiyuk, WR, San Francisco 49ers (+2,500): He missed 10 games last year to an ACL tear, and with Deebo Samuel gone, Brandon Aiyuk should get a lot of work in 2025.
  • Stefon Diggs, WR, New England Patriots (+2,500): He seems to have cooled off since his Memorial Day Weekend fiesta, and he’s catching passes from a very encouraging young QB in Drake Maye. If the Pats are half-decent, Diggs will be in the race.
  • Daniel Jones, QB, Indianapolis Colts (+3,300): QBs win this award so often we had to throw the only reasonable long-shot signal caller in here. Daniel Jones will be the starter for the Colts this season as far as we’re concerned, so if they can get to nine wins, Jones will be in consideration.
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Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.