2025 NFL Futures Betting: How Many QBs Will Throw for 30 TDs This Year?

The 2025 NFL season is right around the corner ladies and gentlemen. Start your futures engines. We’ve covered a ton of team futures over the last couple of weeks, so now we switch back to individual player futures betting markets. This time, we’re looking at the guys expected to throw the most passing TDs.

This modern era of football has been characterized by big stats in the passing game, but not necessarily over the last few years. Only 13 QBs have thrown for 30+ passing TDs in a season since 2022. Sportsbooks are offering odds for the top 28 QBs to reach the 30 TD, 35 TD, and 40 TD plateaus this year. We’ve searched out the best value on the board and added an intriguing long shot bet.

2025 Players To Throw For 30+ TDs Futures Markets: Breakdown & Value Picks - August 24

All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

2025 Players To Throw For 30+ TDs Futures Markets - Betting Odds

Player (Team)	Odds To Throw For 30+ TDs	Odds To Throw For 35+ TDs	Odds To Throw For 40+ TDs
Joe Burrow (CIN)	-300	+115	+300
Baker Mayfield (TB)	-110	+250	+650
Jared Goff (DET)	+120	+320	+750
Lamar Jackson (BAL)	+120	+320	+750
Patrick Mahomes (KC)	+150	+375	+850
Josh Allen (BUF)	+160	+425	+1,000
Dak Prescott (DAL)	+220	+500	+1,200
J.J. McCarthy (MIN)	+320	+650	+1,600
Jordan Love (GB)	+320	+650	+1,600
Bo Nix (DEN)	+360	+700	+2,200
Brock Purdy (SF)	+360	+700	+2,200
Aaron Rodgers (PIT)	+400	+800	+2,800
Matthew Stafford (LAR)	+400	+800	+2,800
Trevor Lawrence (JAX)	+400	+1,200	+4,000
Jayden Daniels (WAS)	+425	+850	+3,000
Caleb Williams (CHI)	+450	+900	+3,500
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA)	+450	+900	+3,500
Justin Herbert (LAC)	+475	+1,000	+4,000
C.J. Stroud (HOU)	+600	+1,400	+4,000
Kyler Murray (ARI)	+800	+1,800	+5,000
Geno Smith (LV)	+850	+2,000	+5,000
Cam Ward (TEN)	+1,000	+2,500	+6,000
Drake Maye (NE)	+1,000	+2,500	+6,000
Jalen Hurts (PHI)	+1,000	+2,500	+6,000
Sam Darnold (SEA)	+1,000	+2,200	+5,000
Michael Penix Jr. (ATL)	+1,400	+3,000	+6,000
Bryce Young (CAR)	+1,800	+4,000	+8,000
Justin Fields (NYJ)	+3,000	+6,000	+10,000

Joe Burrow (CIN) - 35+ TD Passes (+115): He threw 43 last year to lead the league, and Joe Burrow also threw 35 in 2022 and 34 in 2021. It’s clear that range is his floor when he plays a full season, so we’re just counting on his health. And with the array of weapons he’s got for the 2025 season, he might throw for even more than he did last year.

Baker Mayfield (TB) - 35+ TD Passes (+250): Baker Mayfield had 28 TDs in 2023 in his first year in Tampa Bay, and it seems like he’s going to continue climbing the ladder. Apart from Burrow, this is the only guy that threw for over 40 TD passes in 2024. Mike Evans, Cade Otton, and rookie Emeka Egbuka are all big-bodied red zone threats, so Mayfield should have a field day in 2025.

Patrick Mahomes - 35+ TD Passes (+375): We’re very bullish on Patrick Mahomes’ prospects for the 2025 season. He has been quiet in the regular season the last two years, but that embarrassing Super Bowl loss will have lit a fire under him. He’ll be back to the numbers he was putting up between 2018-2022 when he averaged 38.4 TD passes per year, only going below 37 once.

Best Long Shot:

Bryce Young (CAR) - 30+ TD Passes (+1,800): Bryce Young finished last season very encouragingly with 15 TD passes in his final 10 starts. That’s just over 25 TDs stretched across an entire season. With two first-round receivers in the mix and veteran Adam Thielen still contributing, we love this one considering the massive betting odds we’re getting on most sportsbooks.