2025 NFL Futures Betting: NFC South Over/Under Win Totals Predictions

We continue our series looking at one of the favorites among NFL futures bettors: over/under win totals. Canadian sportsbooks generally offer 1-3 numbers (ie: over/under 10.5 wins) for each team, with odds for them to go over or under each number. Because of all those variables, we’re doing this by division.

Since Drew Brees retired following the 2020 season, this division has been dominated by Tampa Bay, first under Tom Brady, and now Baker Mayfield. Since 2021, the division has just 118 collective wins, far fewer than all other divisions over that span (except the AFC South). Will those trends continue in 2025? Well, we don’t think they will go on forever, with Carolina and Atlanta seemingly figuring themselves out. But our two cents is that neither will be ready to challenge Tampa hegemony just yet this year.

2025 NFC South Over/Under Win Totals Futures Market: Breakdown & Value Picks - August 11

All odds provided by Betway.

2025 NFC South Over/Under Win Totals - Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: In two years with Baker Mayfield at the helm, the Bucs have gone 4-2 in this weak division, and we believe that will be the case again this time as they sweep the Saints. With their powerhouse offense they can go to Houston and get a win, but they will lose to the Eagles and the Lions.

Against the AFC East, Tampa Bay should beat all but the Bills, and they will get at least two wins against the likes of the NFC West. That makes 10, but they could very well exceed expectations in divisional play or against the NFC West (depending on how the Rams turn out).

Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 9.5 Wins (-105)

Atlanta Falcons: How good will Michael Penix Jr. be? Will Kyle Pitts finally break out? Can their talented defense become a top 10 unit? While we wouldn’t hold our breath on Pitts, the other two could happen in time. But we doubt Penix will come in and be a world-beater in his first season as the nailed-on starter.

We’ll give him three wins in the division. Two wins apiece against the NFC West and AFC East seems fair, bringing them to seven wins. They’ve got a chance against the Colts in Berlin, but the defensive fronts of Minnesota and Washington will be too much for the young QB. Seven, maybe eight wins seems about right here.

Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons Under 8.5 Wins (-150)

Carolina Panthers: Bryce Young looked more than capable during the back half of last season, and the front office spent a top five pick on another weapon in Tetairoa McMillan. We don’t think they’ll have designs on the playoffs, but they’ll win more games than the five they did last year.

They should get three division wins this time around, and to be conservative we’ll say three wins from eight against the AFC East and NFC West. They’ll lose at Lambeau, but we think they could surprise the Jags on opening day or upset the Cowboys at home to get to seven.

Best Bet: Carolina Panthers Over 6.5 Wins (-140)

New Orleans Saints: This team has a great set of skill position players, but that defense was abysmal last year and hasn’t been greatly improved. They also have a first time head coach and QB combo. And early returns on Tyler Shough especially, are not encouraging.

There’s a reason betting sites are giving this team the second-shortest odds (+145) in the NFL to win the fewest games (under 4.5) this year. Two from their division even feels generous, but we’ll give it to them. They have other possible wins on the docket against the Giants, Jets, Titans, and Cardinals, but we doubt they win three of four there. Even with a cupcake schedule, the Saints will go under the lowest number on the board.

Best Bet: New Orleans Saints Under 4.5 Wins (+145)/Betway