2025 NFL Futures Betting Odds: Derrick Henry Favored To Lead NFL In Rush TDs For 4th Time

The rushing or receiving touchdown is one of the most high-variance stats in sports. That makes it tough to predict and tough to bet on. But it also usually means you get some good value on whoever you’re picking on a game-by-game basis.

It should be similar for touchdown futures, right? Well, in the case of the “2025 most regular season rushing TDs” NFL futures betting market this season, wrong. While Ja’Marr Chase is the only wideout with odds under +1,000 to lead the league in receiving TDs, there are six players under that threshold for the rushing TD version of that market. It seems to be a wide open race, so let’s take a look at the betting odds and top favorites for 2025’s rushing TD king!

2025 NFL Most Regular Season Rushing TDs Futures Market: Breakdown & Value Picks - August 2

All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

2025 NFL Most Regular Season Rushing TDs Betting Odds

The Favorites

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens (+450): Derrick Henry led the league in this stat in 2019 and 2020 and tied for the league lead last year, with 16. His 18 rushes inside the five-yard-line last year were tied for third, but his 94.7 rush rate from that range was by far the highest in the league. Lamar Jackson doesn’t run it in from that close. Henry is likely to score a lot again, but leading the league in rushing TDs in back-to-back seasons two different times in your career is quite literally unprecedented. Those +450 odds aren’t doing him any favors here either.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (+550): While not offering a ton more value than Henry, we believe Jalen Hurts is the best among the top three here (though our best bet is slightly lower on the board). Hurts had 14 last year (two off the league lead), 15 the year before (second in the NFL), and the year before that he had 13 (also tied for second).

Since Philly started employing the Tush Push, Hurts has been among the league-leaders every year. A QB has never led the league in rushing TDs, but with this possibly being the last ride for the Brotherly Shove before it's likely banned in 2026, the Eagles are going to ride it until the wheels fall off. We would have liked better odds here from Canadian sportsbooks, but +550 is still decent value.

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles (+600): While we expect Saquon Barkley to have another excellent season, it won’t be as good as his magical 2024. He scored 13 rushing TDs despite not benefitting from the Tush Push. But he scored 9 of those 13 from 10+ yards. Impressive, but unlikely to be replicated. Long touchdowns have an even higher variance. With Hurts gobbling up goal line TDs, it would be hard for Barkley to even lead his own team in rushing TDs.

Best Bet

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions (+850): This guy right here is our best bet. He tied for the league lead last year with 16 TDs, and Jahmyr Gibbs wasn’t even the main red zone back. He had 15 carries inside the five-yard-line compared to teammate David Montgomery’s 17. Both scored eight touchdowns from that range. Montgomery had 12 TDs himself overall.

From inside the 20, Gibbs had 50 carries, Montgomery had 49. While the older back will still figure, we can’t imagine the Lions holding Gibbs back as part of a timeshare for much longer. This is great value for a guy who should come on really strong later in the season. You might want to even wait to bet on this one.