2025 NFL Most Regular Season Receiving TDs Futures Market: Breakdown & Value Picks - August 2
All odds provided by Betway.
2025 NFL Most Regular Season Receiving TDs Betting Odds
| Player | August 2 Odds |
| Ja’Marr Chase (CIN) | +600 |
| Justin Jefferson (MIN) | +1,000 |
| Mike Evans (TB) | +1,200 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) | +1,400 |
| Davante Adams (LAR) | +1,400 |
| Terry McLaurin (WAS) | +1,400 |
| CeeDee Lamb (DAL) | +1,500 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) | +1,600 |
| Nico Collins (HOU) | +1,600 |
| Tyreek Hill (MIA) | +1,800 |
| A.J. Brown (PHI) | +2,000 |
| Drake London (ATL) | +2,000 |
| Mark Andrews (BAL) | +2,000 |
| Tee Higgins (CIN) | +2,000 |
| George Kittle (SF) | +2,200 |
| Malik Nabers (NYG) | +2,200 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) | +2,200 |
| Puka Nacua (LAR) | +2,500 |
| Xavier Worthy (KC) | +2,500 |
The Favorites
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals (+600): Ja’Marr Chase had a historic season last year, becoming just the fifth receiver to win the receiving triple crown (lead league in receptions, TDs, and yards) since 1966. However, repeating as the leader in receiving touchdowns is nearly impossible. It has not happened since Terrell Owens did it in 2001-2002, and only Jerry Rice (multiple times in the 1980s) and Raymond Berry (1958-1959) had also accomplished that going back to WW2.
Chase will have another big year, but he won’t be leading the league in every category again, though Vegas seems to think he will. If he was to repeat some of his 2024 success, it’s more likely to be in receptions and yardage rather than the much higher variance touchdown stat.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (+1,000): We love Justin Jefferson’s odds here, but we don’t actually love his chances to lead the league in touchdowns. He’s going to be catching passes from J.J. McCarthy, who is basically a rookie. But the other thing is that Jefferson is not really a touchdown guy. He was third in red zone targets, but only managed six TDs from 25. He scores long touchdowns, which means his scoring numbers go through even more variance. He has never had more than 10 TDs in a season, and we don’t think he’ll be eclipsing any career highs this year.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1,200): Mike Evans led the league in TDs in 2023, with 13 from Bakery Mayfield. He has also posted double-digits TDs in four of the last five years. We’re expecting big things from that Buccaneers passing attack. They’re going to score a lot, and Evans is the perfect big-bodied wideout: he can score from long balls as well as red zone targets, which lowers his variance significantly. At +1,200 odds on most betting sites, this is our favorite pick among the favorites.
Long Shot Value Bet
- Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams (+1,400): We could definitely see a scenario where Puka Nacua gets the lion’s share of the targets in the Rams offense, with Davante Adams taking precedence inside the 20 in the red zone. He is the only player to lead the league in receiving TDs multiple times since 2010 (2020 and 2022).
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions (+1,400): Though not a big-body receiver, Amon-Ra St. Brown is a go-to guy for Jared Goff in the red zone. He posted 31 red zone targets last year, second-most in the NFL behind Chase. He could leapfrog the Bengals WR this season.
