2026 NFL Number 1 Overall Pick Betting Odds & Favorites

Super Bowl 60 is now in the history books. Shout out to Sam Darnold, Ken Walker, and the Seattle Seahawks. And with that, the 2025 season comes to a close. Now it’s time to shift focus to the 2026 campaign. The first thing on this year’s schedule, as always, is the NFL Draft in late April.

The 2026 edition, which will be held in Pittsburgh from April 23-25, looks to be an interesting one. However, with Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza putting up one of the best collegiate seasons in recent memory, he might just be a shoo-in for the top pick. Nonetheless, we break down the early NFL betting odds for Mendoza and the other “favorites” to be selected first overall in the 2026 NFL draft.

2026 NFL Number 1 Overall Pick Early Betting Odds & Best Bets

All betting odds provided by Betway

Team	2026 No. 1 Overall Pick Odds
Fernando Mendoza, QB (Indiana)	-8,000
Rueben Bain Jr., Edge (Miami)	+4,500
Arvell Reese, LB (Ohio State)	+5,500
Ty Simpson, QB (Alabama)	+7,500
Caleb Downs, S (Ohio State)	+10,000
Jordyn Tyson, WR (Arizona State)	+10,000
Keldric Faulk, DT (Auburn)	+10,000
Carnell Tate, WR (Ohio State)	+12,500
Cashius Howell, DE (Texas A&M)	+12,500
6 more tied at	+12,500

The Favorite: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana (-8,000)

At the start of the 2025 NCAA football season, Fernando Mendoza and the Indiana Hoosiers were not on anybody’s radar as even a long-shot contender. All they ended up doing is going 16-0 as Indiana won the National Championship and their All-American quarterback was named the Heisman Trophy winner. Before the season, he had 60-1 odds. Now, just 5-6 months later, Mendoza is an insane -8,000 odds favorite to be selected with the No. 1 overall pick by the downtrodden Raiders.

Our Best Bet: Nobody

If the Raiders hold onto this pick, which we would have to assume they will, there’s just no way they don’t go with a QB. The Geno Smith experiment did not work out, and Tom Brady and the Vegas brass will want to start a new era with a new QB. And considering Mendoza is the only QB in the top three on the odds board, it’s going to be him. Mendoza has shown no reason to doubt him, whether it’s play on the field or his composure off of it. And since his odds are so short, the only guy you should bet on is not worth betting on.

Dark Horse Candidate: Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami (+4,500)

However, if the Raiders do end up trading the pick for a haul, they could trade it to a team that doesn’t want to draft a QB. Though even that is unlikely. But if it does happen, and a team like the Titans or Giants trades up, they would likely go with the best non-QB on the board in Hurricanes edge rusher Rueben Bain Jr. He was an All-American as a junior, putting up 12.5 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks on the season.