Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Play-In Game - Best Bets & Betting Odds
All odds provided by Betway.
Hawks vs. Heat Point Spread/Moneyline Prediction
We actually think the Heat should be favored here considering what we saw from each of these teams on Tuesday and Wednesday. Miami has won the last two meetings] both of which came by double-digits. They are on the road here, but the Hawks aren’t great at home, as they are 18-22 ATS in their building this year.
If the Hawks were at full strength with Jalen Johnson and Clint Capela in there, they’d probably be our pick here. However, as it stands, Trae Young is pretty much the only creative force in that offense, and he’s going to be getting absolutely dogged all night by one of the best on-ball defenders in the game in Davion Mitchell. He held red hot Coby White to 5-for-20 earlier this week, and he should put the lightweight Young in a similar hell.
Miami is better defensively, they’re better coached, they have more playoff experience, they have a deeper roster, and they have more talent. Without Capela and Johnson, we just don’t see where the Hawks will have any edge in this one.
Best Bet: Miami Heat Moneyline (-110)
Hawks vs. Heat Over/Under Prediction
Over the last 13 games, when the Heat have gone 9-4 straight up, Miami has been scoring a ton, topping 108 points in all of them and going over 110 in all but two.
Atlanta, meanwhile, can’t stop anyone. They’ve allowed opponents to score 115+ in 11 of their last 14 games, and a lot of times it was 120+. The over is 11-3-1 in Atlanta’s last 15, while Miami has seen overs in 10 of their last 16.
Best Bet: Game Total Points Over 219.0 (-110)
Player Prop Best Bet
There were a lot of reasons the Heat won on Tuesday, but the biggest one was Tyler Herro, who went supernova with 38 points on 13-for-19 shooting from the floor. He’s also had a great run against the Hawks specifically this year, going for 28, 11, 24, and 36 in four meetings.
Since he put up an ugly 8-point, 3-for-11 night against the Rockets in a loss on March 21, Herro has been unstoppable. Over his 11 appearances since then, he’s averaging 28.4 points with a silly shooting slash line of 58/47/94. Miami is also 9-2 during that span, which I’m sure is no coincidence.
The hoop is the size of an ocean for Herro right now, and the Hawks certainly have no one around to slow him down. Cole Anthony just went nuts on this team for 26 points, and Herro is certainly a bigger and better scorer than him. He has scored 25+ points in eight of his last 11 games.
Best Bet: Tyler Herro Over 26.0 Points (-110)/Betway
