Bills vs. Dolphins Week 3 TNF: NFL Betting Odds & Picks

The Buffalo Bills put a whooping on the New York Jets on Sunday in a 30-10 win. They’ll look to do exactly the same to another AFC East rival, the reeling Miami Dolphins, on Thursday night in Week 3 at home.

Of all the 0-2 teams in the NFL, it could be argued that Mike McDaniel’s group has looked the worse. The only question here is by just how much the Bills will beat the Dolphins. Check out our analysis and predictions for the TNF matchup, as well as the top betting odds from the best Canadian betting sites.

NFL Week 3 TNF: Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Odds & Picks - Sep. 18

All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

Bills vs. Dolphins Point Spread/Moneyline Prediction

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills’ offense has been scorching to start the season. The running game is running smoothly and Allen is building chemistry with his litany of solid yet not elite passing options.

And now they go up against a Miami team that gave up 33 points to Daniel Jones and another 33 to Drake Maye last week. The feeling around the Dolphins might be the worst in the league, and it’s likely that star WR Tyreek Hill (among other veterans) is dealt ahead of the trade deadline. A divisional game would usually be a good spot for a bounce back, but with the Fins on the road for this one, this feels like quite a mountain to climb.

Allen and the Bills have dominated this fixture recently. Allen is 12-2 all-time against the Dolphins. Since 2017, the year before Allen was drafted, Buffalo is 15-2 against Miami including the playoffs. Buffalo is also 13-9 ATS in their last 22 games as a favorite of 7.5 or more. They are also 7-7 ATS as a double-digit home dog over the last couple of years, though three of those losses came by a half-point.

And that’s really the only thing giving us pause. 12 points in a divisional game is a hefty spread. Sportsbooks really don’t want us to bet on the Bills here. But we believe the Bills are that good right now and the Dolphins still have a lot to figure out. We will buy down a few points, however, to make this more palatable.

Prediction: Buffalo Bills Alternative -9.5 Point Spread (-148)

Bills vs. Dolphins Over/Under Total Prediction

The Bills have been scoring a ton of points over the first couple of weeks. But the Dolphins offense has really struggled, and Buffalo showed last week that their defense could shut a team down if they don’t have Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry in the backfield. This total is suggesting another explosion from the Bills as well as a couple of Miami TDs.

While we generally like to take the under when it comes to divisional games, this particular fixture has been a barnburner nearly every time since Allen’s arrival in 2018. Since then, these teams have played eight times in Buffalo, and all but one went over 50 points, with an average total of 60.2 points a game. Six of those eight went above 55 points as well. We’ll take the over.

Prediction: Game Total Points Over 49.5 (-110)

Bills vs. Dolphins Player Prop Best Bets

The Dolphins defense has struggled with a lot of different things through the first two weeks. But one of their biggest issues has been running backs catching passes out of the backfield. Jonathan Taylor had 27 in Week 1, going way over his 10.5-yard line. In Week 2, Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson both went over their receiving props.

Stevenson had five receptions for 88 yards while Henderson had a pair for 30. Bills starting RB James Cook had just one reception for three yards in Week 1, but he had five for 58 last week. This 11.5 number is so low, we simply could not resist. Cook went over this number in 11 of his 19 games last year as well.

Best Bet:

• James Cook Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-110)/Sports Interaction