Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 5 NBA Playoff Odds

Alex Murray
By: Alex Murray
24 May 23
NBA
News - NBA
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 5 NBA Playoff Odds

The Miami Heat were unable to finish off their Conference Final opponents with a clean sweep, as they fell to the Boston Celtics 116-99 in Game 4. The Celtics have little chance of winning the series at this point, but they can still play for pride on their home court in Boston.

Strangely, most NBA betting sites have the Celtics as massive moneyline favorites for Game 5 just as they have for every other game in this series. It seems oddsmakers have a greater belief in the Celtics than they do in themselves at times.

Highlights

  • Miami Heat lead the series 3-1 after Game 4 loss
  • Jayson Tatum scored first 4th quarter field goal of series in Game 4
  • Only 14 of the 149 teams to go down 3-0 have been able to force a Game 6

Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 5 NBA Odds - May 25th, 830PM EST

The Boston Celtics have staved off elimination for at least one more game, but in Game 5 they’ll need to play with the same urgency they did on Tuesday when they were trying to avoid the sweep. They definitely shouldn’t expect Jimmy Butler and company to be as lax with the basketball as they were in Game 4 either. All odds provided by Betway.

TeamMoneylinePoint SpreadTotal (O/U)
Boston Celtics-303-7.5 (-115)O215.5 (-105)
Miami Heat+240+7.5 (-105)U215.5 (-115)

Boston Celtics Odds

The Boston Celtics looked like they had given up hope on their season after their Game 3 loss in Miami, but surprisingly enough, they showed some gamesmanship and heart in Game 4 as they came back from a six-point halftime deficit to win the contest comfortably thanks in large part to a 20-5 run coming out of halftime.

For most teams you would say that playing at home should give them the advantage in sending the series to a Game 6, but with a 4-5 home record so far in these playoffs, the TD Garden has hardly been a safe place for the Celtics. The issue hasn’t just been this season either, as they went 6-6 at home during their run to the NBA Finals last year as well.

Jayson Tatum has been decent for the Celtics in this series, especially in Game 4 when he scored 25 of his 34 points in the second half to put the game out of reach for the Heat. However, that performance was still in line with a worrying Tatum trend that began in the Conference Semifinals.

Since the start of that 76ers series, Tatum has been scoring 12.5 points on 42 percent shooting in the first half before heating up to score 15.5 points on 52 percent shooting in the second half. Obviously, you want your best players to play their best in crunch time, but the slow starts for Tatum have contributed to the Celtics having to play from behind a lot in this series.

While Tatum just needs to play better at the start of games, his sidekicks Jaylen Brown and Malcolm Brogdon need to play better period. The Sixth Man of the Year has contributed just 2 points on 1-for-11 shooting over the past two games and Brown, who made the All-NBA Second Team, has averaged just 15 points on 35 percent shooting from the field in the last three.

Miami Heat Odds

Head coach Erik Spoelstra’s Miami Heat did not play like the team we’ve seen so far in this Cinderella postseason run. In Game 4 they did not play consistently, they were sloppy with the ball in offensive transition, they were undisciplined in defensive transition, and they couldn’t hit a three-point shot to save their lives.

Not only did the Heat allow the Celtics to play their preferred way, winning the fast break battle 18-10 and shooting 40 percent on their 45 three-point tries, but they also allowed them to get anything they wanted down low, giving up 40 points in the paint.

The turnovers were the real killers for Miami in Game 4, however. It wasn’t just the fact that they turned the ball over, but the timing and consequences of those turnovers that really hurt. Several times the Heat had the makings of a comeback run going, only to commit a silly turnover in transition that led to an easy basket on the other end for Boston. 16 turnovers hurt, but when the opponent turns those into 27 points, they’re deadly.

With Jimmy Butler shooting poorly from the floor and missing easy layups and tap ins, Bam Adebayo going completely ghost in the second half, and Miami’s undrafted three-point barrage hitting the skids in Game 4, Game 5 has all the makings of a big bounce back game for this well-coached team.

You’d have to go back a long way to find a team up 3-1 in a series that came into Game 5 as underdogs as large as Miami. Their +7.5 point spread is offering a lot of value right now, so don’t overthink it and look that gift horse in the mouth, just take the points.

Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.