NFL Conference Championship Sunday: Player Prop Best Bets & Odds - January 25
All odds provided by Betway.
RJ Harvey, RB, DEN - Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs. NE
It seemed as though J.K. Dobbins might make a shock return to the lineup after logging three limited practices this week. However, he was recently ruled out officially for Sunday by the Broncos, so the backfield belongs to rookie RJ Harvey once again.
And while the second-rounder hasn’t been great on the ground in Dobbins’ absence, he has been excellent through the air. Harvey has recorded 20+ receiving yards in seven of his last 10 games. Though the one worrying thing is that in those three where he didn’t hit that number, he never surpassed five yards.
However, with backfield mate Jaleel McLaughlin not figuring into the passing game (just three targets combined over his last five games), Harvey should once again see a lot of looks. He’s had 4+ targets in six of his last seven games. And we think his role in the air attack will be even more pronounced with Jarrett Stidham stepping into the lineup at QB.
Stidham doesn’t have a lot of experience. He hasn’t thrown a pass in two years. And because of that, we imagine he’ll make a lot of conservative throws. And that means check downs to the running back, Harvey. In Stidham’s last significant action at the end of the 2023 season, he started two games. In those games, he targeted RBs 10 and eight times.
Also working in our favor is that the Patriots have allowed about 20 yards to a RB in each of their playoff wins: Kimani Vidal had 20 in the Wild Card round, and Woody Marks had 19 last week. Get this Harvey receiving yards prop where it’s at now before betting sites realize their error.
Hunter Henry, TE, NE - Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-110) @ DEN
Hunter Henry had his least productive game of the season last week in the Patriots’ Divisional Round win. He had season-lows in receptions (1) and yards (5). But that’s actually a good sign for his prospects in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday.
Henry has had three other games with under 10 receiving yards this season. The following games, Henry had 90, 51, and 45 yards. He loves a good bounce back. And he’s been in good general form of late anyway. He has had 45+ receiving yards in six of his last nine games, and this Broncos defense seems like it will oblige another big day for Henry.
Denver’s defense is about as good as it gets, but they have a weak spot. They gave up the ninth-most receiving yards per game to TEs this season (59.7) and that was before they gave up 83 and 32 to Bills TEs Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, respectively, last week.
